The UFC heads to Baku, Azerbaijan, for an early-morning Fight Night card (at least in the United States). As is often the case with international events, the lineup features plenty of local talent, but that doesn’t mean the card lacks quality matchups. While many of the fighters may not be household names, this event is packed with aggressive styles and should deliver plenty of action, with several bouts carrying strong knockout potential.
Welterweight: Tahir Abdullayev (-105) vs Jefferson Nascimento (-115)
Two UFC newcomers kick off the card, and with Vegas listing the bout as essentially a pick’em, it should be a competitive and entertaining way to start the night.
Tahir “Tank” Abdullayev is a 29-year-old fighter representing Azerbaijan. He enters the UFC with a 21-3 record, having spent his entire professional career on the regional scene. Abdullayev went 2-2 in UAE Warriors but captured the promotion’s title before eventually losing the belt. He owns 9 wins by knockout and 7 by submission. His only stoppage loss came via submission early in his career, while his other two defeats were by decision. Most recently, Abdullayev won four fights in a five-month span before taking an eight-month layoff leading into his UFC debut.
Standing across from him is Jefferson “Toddynho” Nascimento, an undefeated Brazilian prospect with a 13-0 record. Nascimento compiled a perfect 6-0 mark in LFA, one of the strongest regional promotions in the world, and his last three victories came in LFA title fights. He is a well-rounded fighter, with 5 knockout wins, 3 submission victories, and 5 decision wins. Earlier in his career he competed at welterweight, but he has spent his last several fights at lightweight.
The circumstances surrounding this matchup are fascinating. Nascimento is making his UFC debut just one month after a four-round title fight at a different weight class. He now has to move back up 15 pounds, deal with a quick turnaround, and fight a hometown favorite in front of an Azerbaijani crowd. Meanwhile, Abdullayev has enjoyed a full eight-month layoff and is competing in his natural division.
Despite those factors, I believe Nascimento is the more talented and complete fighter. Abdullayev’s best path to victory may be through his wrestling and grappling, but I expect Nascimento to find success on the feet before those skills can become a major factor. The Brazilian has shown excellent composure throughout his regional career, and I think his striking advantage proves to be the difference.
Prediction: Jefferson Nascimento defeats Tahir Abdullayev via Round 1 KO.
Bantamweight: Bekzat Almakhan (+130) vs Jean Matsumoto (-150)
Bekzat “The Turan Warrior” Almakhan is a 28-year-old karate specialist from Kazakhstan with a 12-3 professional MMA record and a 1-2 mark in the UFC. He also compiled a perfect 10-0 record in Modified Rules MMA, though those bouts do not count toward his professional record. Before reaching the UFC, Almakhan went 5-0 in Octagon and picked up a victory in UAE Warriors. While his UFC record may not immediately stand out, context is important. His losses came against top contender Umar Nurmagomedov and highly regarded prospect Aleksandre Topuria, two of the toughest matchups any new UFC bantamweight can have. His lone UFC victory was a knockout of Brad Katona, though that win does little to clarify his true ceiling as a fighter. Almakhan has earned 10 of his 12 victories by knockout and has never been stopped by strikes. Given the level of opposition he has faced, it remains difficult to determine exactly where he stands within the middle of the bantamweight division.
Jean Matsumoto is a 26-year-old Brazilian with a Muay Thai background. He enters this fight with a 17-2 professional record and a 3-2 mark in the UFC. Matsumoto began his career 13-0 with two wins in LFA before earning a shot on Dana White’s Contender Series. There, he defeated the undefeated Kasey Tanner by decision to secure a UFC contract. Although he owns 3 knockout victories and 6 submission wins, Matsumoto has primarily been a decision fighter inside the Octagon. His only UFC finish came against Dan Argueta, whom he submitted with a guillotine choke with just one second remaining in the second round. His UFC wins have come against Argueta, Brad Katona, and Miles Johns, while his losses were competitive outings against ranked veteran Rob Font and top prospect Farid Basharat. Much like Almakhan, Matsumoto has proven capable against quality opposition without yet securing a signature victory.
That dynamic is what makes this matchup so compelling. Both fighters sit on the line between legitimate prospect and proven gatekeeper. Neither has a truly elite win, but neither has been exposed by anything less than high-level competition. Matsumoto has probably accomplished more overall, but Almakhan has impressed me more when I’ve watched him compete. His explosiveness, power, and willingness to engage make him a dangerous opponent for anyone in the division.
If this fight turns into a grappling-heavy affair or reaches the scorecards, Matsumoto has a strong path to victory. However, I trust Almakhan’s striking more, and I think he eventually finds the opening he needs. In what would be a slight upset, I’m picking Almakhan to land the more damaging shots and force a stoppage.
Prediction: Bekzat Almakhan defeats Jean Matsumoto via Round 2 TKO.
Welterweight: Daniil Donchenko (-475) vs Theodor Berggren (+375)
Daniil Donchenko is a 24-year-old Ukrainian kickboxer with a 13-2 professional MMA record. He earned his way to the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter, winning the tournament and securing a UFC contract. His two exhibition victories on the show do not count toward his official record. In his first fight following TUF, Donchenko picked up an impressive decision victory over veteran Alex Morono. He has finished 10 of his 13 wins, including 8 by knockout and 2 by submission. However, three of his last five fights (including exhibitions) have gone the distance, raising some questions about his ability to maintain his pace deep into fights. Donchenko possesses serious power and offensive upside, but his gas tank remains an area worth monitoring as he faces tougher competition.
After Andreas Gustafsson was forced to withdraw due to medical issues, fellow Swede Theodor “Simba” Berggren stepped in on short notice. Berggren is 26 years old and enters the UFC with an 8-3 professional record. He has spent most of his career competing in FCR, while also posting a 1-1 record in Cage Warriors. Like Donchenko, he has shown finishing ability throughout his career, earning 5 knockout victories and 3 submission wins. All three of his losses have come after the opening round, including a third-round submission defeat and two decision losses. That trend suggests Berggren may struggle as fights wear on, which could be a concern against higher-level opposition.
This matchup features two fighters whose cardio appears to be their biggest question mark. If the fight somehow reaches the later rounds, things could get interesting as both men have shown signs of slowing down. However, I don’t expect this contest to last long enough for that to become a major factor.
Donchenko looks like one of the more promising prospects at welterweight, and I think his power, athleticism, and overall skill level will be too much for Berggren to handle. Berggren is dangerous enough to make things exciting early, but I don’t see him surviving the opening storm. I expect Donchenko to put the pressure on immediately and find a finish before either fighter has to worry about conserving energy.
Prediction: Daniil Donchenko defeats Theodor Berggren via Round 1 KO.
Featherweight: Kaan Ofli (+130) vs Javier Reyes (-150)
“Genghis” Kaan Ofli is a 33-year-old Turkish mixed martial artist with a professional record of 13-4-1. He enters this matchup with a 2-2 UFC record after a lengthy and unconventional path to the promotion. Ofli began his career 3-2-1 before putting together an impressive eight-fight winning streak that earned him a spot on The Ultimate Fighter. He won both of his exhibition bouts on the show but fell short in the tournament finale, losing his UFC debut to Mairon Santos. A second consecutive loss to Muhammad Naimov put him in an early hole, but he has since rebounded with victories over Ricardo Ramos and Yizha to even his UFC record. Ofli has earned 2 wins by knockout and 6 by submission, showcasing a well-rounded skill set, though his grappling remains his biggest strength. Most of his defeats have come by decision, reflecting his toughness and ability to remain competitive against quality opposition.
Standing across from him is Javier “Blair” Reyes, a 32-year-old Colombian veteran with a 23-5 professional record. Reyes started his career 9-0 before hitting a rough stretch against tougher competition. He responded by rattling off seven consecutive victories, capturing regional championship gold and eventually earning a shot in LFA. There he went 2-2, with one of those losses coming against future UFC prospect Lerryan Douglas. At 21-5, Reyes received an opportunity on Dana White’s Contender Series and capitalized in emphatic fashion, stopping Justice Torres with a first-round knockout to secure a UFC contract. He carried that momentum into his promotional debut, knocking out Douglas Silva de Andrade in the opening round. Reyes is a proven finisher, boasting 11 knockout victories and 8 submissions among his 23 wins. He has also experienced defeat by knockout, submission, and decision, giving him experience in virtually every type of fight imaginable.
While Reyes may not fit the traditional mold of a UFC prospect due to his age and experience, he was one of the most impressive fighters to emerge from last year’s Contender Series class. His combination of experience, composure, and finishing ability makes him a dangerous matchup for anyone in the division.
Ofli is a solid, well-rounded fighter with a legitimate grappling threat, but I believe Reyes holds advantages wherever this fight takes place. On the feet, Reyes appears to be the sharper and more powerful striker. Even if Ofli is able to force grappling exchanges, I trust Reyes’ physicality and ground-and-pound to keep him in control. Reyes has looked like the more complete fighter throughout his short run, and I expect that trend to continue here.
Prediction: Javier Reyes defeats Kaan Ofli via Round 2 TKO.
Middleweight: Nursulton Ruziboev (-225) vs Andrey Pulyaev (+185)
Nursulton “Black” Ruziboev is a 32-year-old Uzbekistani kickboxer with an extensive professional record of 36-9-2. He entered the UFC with a 32-8-2 record built largely on the regional circuit and has gone 4-1 inside the Octagon. Since arriving in the promotion, Ruziboev has picked up victories over Brunno Ferreira, Sedriques Dumas, Eric McConico, and Dustin Stoltzfus. The win over Ferreira stands out as the most impressive of the group, while the others have done little to elevate his résumé. His lone UFC defeat came against ranked contender Joaquin Buckley, who earned a decision victory over him.
Ruziboev is a prolific finisher. Of his 36 career wins, 13 have come by knockout and 20 by submission, leaving just three victories that reached the scorecards. Interestingly, despite owning a strong submission background, all three of his UFC finishes have come via TKO. While he is capable of grappling when necessary, Ruziboev generally prefers to rely on his kickboxing and offensive pressure to hunt for stoppages. Cardio has been a recurring concern throughout his career, however. He owns just a 5-7 record in fights that reach the third round, making early success critical to his overall game plan.
Andrey Pulyaev is a 28-year-old Russian fighter with a 10-4 professional record and a 1-2 mark in the UFC. Before reaching the promotion, he went 7-2 on the regional scene and earned a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series with a decision victory over Liam Anderson. His UFC run has been a mixed bag, though the level of competition deserves consideration. Pulyaev’s two losses came against Christian Leroy Duncan and Ateba Gautier, two of the more dangerous strikers in the middleweight division. While he was unable to defeat either man, he managed to survive all three rounds against both before dropping unanimous decisions. His lone UFC victory came against Nick Klein, whom he knocked out impressively.
Pulyaev has six knockout wins and two submission victories on his record. Like Ruziboev, he tends to do his best work early in fights and has struggled to consistently win decisions throughout his career. Stylistically, he is a capable, well-rounded fighter, but he generally prefers striking exchanges over extended grappling battles.
This matchup feels deceptively competitive. Both men possess diverse skill sets, yet both are most comfortable standing and trading. They also share similar concerns regarding their ability to maintain effectiveness as fights progress. Ruziboev’s path to victory is usually tied to finding an early finish, while Pulyaev has shown a knack for surviving against dangerous opposition even when he is being outworked. That dynamic is what makes this prediction interesting. Pulyaev’s durability and defensive awareness should allow him to withstand Ruziboev’s early aggression, but I don’t see him doing enough offensively to steal rounds. Instead, I expect him to focus on minimizing damage and extending the fight rather than taking the risks necessary to win. Ruziboev may slow down as the fight progresses, but I think he will have already banked enough success in the opening rounds to comfortably stay ahead on the scorecards.
Prediction: Nursulton Ruziboev defeats Andrey Pulyaev via Unanimous Decision (30-27).
Light Heavyweight: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (-400) vs Julius Walker (+330)
“The Hunter” Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev is a 25-year-old undefeated Turkish prospect who has quickly emerged as one of the most intriguing young fighters in the light heavyweight division. He enters this matchup with a perfect 9-0 professional record, featuring 3 knockout victories, 5 submissions, and just a single decision win. Before reaching the UFC, Yakhyaev went 6-0 on the regional scene and won three title fights, establishing himself as a legitimate prospect. He earned his UFC contract in spectacular fashion on Dana White’s Contender Series, knocking out Alik Lorenz in just 30 seconds.
Since arriving in the UFC, Yakhyaev has done nothing but reinforce the hype. He submitted both Raffael Cerqueira and Brendson Ribeiro via rear-naked choke, extending his undefeated record and showcasing his finishing ability. Remarkably, his last three fights have lasted less than four minutes combined. While he may not possess one-shot knockout power, Yakhyaev consistently hurts opponents with his striking before swarming them with follow-up punches or transitioning to submissions. Few fighters from recent Contender Series classes have looked as dominant, and he has rapidly established himself as one of the division’s premier prospects.
Standing opposite him is Julius “Juice Box” Walker, a 26-year-old American with a 7-2 professional record. Walker was just 5-0 when he reached the UFC and was immediately thrown into the deep end against future ranked contender Alonzo Menifield. Although he lost a split decision, the bout earned Fight of the Night honors and was close enough that many observers felt Walker had a legitimate argument for the victory. Had that decision gone the other way, the perception of his standing in the division would likely be much different today.
Since then, Walker has defeated Raffael Cerqueira while suffering a loss to veteran Dustin Jacoby, one of the toughest unranked fighters in the division and the current No. 11 light heavyweight in the new Meta rankings. Walker owns 4 knockout wins and 2 submission victories, and he has never been submitted as a professional. His toughness, athleticism, and willingness to compete against difficult opposition make him a dangerous matchup despite his relatively modest record.
I believe Walker is one of the most underrated fighters at light heavyweight. His performances against Menifield and Jacoby showed that he belongs at the UFC level, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he eventually works his way into the rankings. Unfortunately for him, this feels like a particularly difficult stylistic matchup against one of the division’s fastest-rising talents. Yakhyaev has looked nearly flawless throughout his recent run, overwhelming opponents before they have an opportunity to settle into the fight. Walker is durable and capable, but I don’t think he’ll have enough time to get comfortable. While Yakhyaev is often recognized more for his ability to create chaos and find finishes through pressure, I think this is the fight where he lands the clean shot that ends things outright.
Prediction: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev defeats Julius Walker via Round 1 KO.
Welterweight: Farman Hasanov (-155) vs Eric Nolan (+135)
Farman “The Lion” Hasanov is a 30-year-old undefeated Azerbaijani wrestler entering the biggest fight of his career. Hasanov owns a perfect 5-0 professional record, with three of those victories coming under the LFA banner. He also holds a victory in a grappling match outside of MMA, further highlighting his combat sports background. Interestingly, despite being billed primarily as a wrestler, Hasanov’s results have come almost exclusively through striking. Four of his five wins have been credited as TKOs, while the fifth came by decision. He has yet to record a submission victory as a professional.
A closer look at those stoppages suggests Hasanov is more of a volume-based finisher than a one-punch knockout artist. Two of his TKOs came through accumulated strikes, while the others resulted from a doctor stoppage and a corner retirement. Even so, he has consistently found ways to break opponents down. His competition has also been stronger than you might expect. The combined record of his five opponents was 13-1-1 at the time he faced them, meaning that while many were relatively inexperienced, they were not simply hand-picked opponents designed to pad his record. Hasanov was favored heavily in most of those bouts, but he still handled the business expected of him.
Standing across from him is Eric “Night Time” Nolan, a 28-year-old American with a Brazilian jiu-jitsu background and an 8-4 professional record. Nolan is currently 0-1 in the UFC, though the circumstances surrounding his debut deserve context. He stepped in on short notice to face Baisangur Susurkaev just five days after Susurkaev competed on Dana White’s Contender Series. Nolan was eventually submitted in the second round, but he showed enough toughness and competitiveness early in the fight to earn respect from many fans.
That performance has turned Nolan into something of an internet cult favorite. Despite an uninspiring record on paper and originally being viewed as a sacrificial opponent for a highly regarded prospect, a segment of the fanbase believes there is more to his game than his résumé suggests. That sentiment is reflected on Tapology, where a slight majority of voters have picked Nolan to win despite him entering the bout as the betting underdog. It’s also worth noting that one of Nolan’s regional losses came against Ty Miller, who has since emerged as a legitimate UFC prospect. Nolan’s own résumé includes four knockout victories and two submissions, showing that he is capable of finishing fights when opportunities present themselves.
This matchup is difficult to evaluate because Hasanov’s résumé is built on such a small sample size. His undefeated record and success in LFA are impressive, but it remains unclear whether he is truly UFC-caliber or simply a promising prospect who has yet to be fully tested. This feels like the type of fighter who would normally earn a contract through Dana White’s Contender Series, but instead gets a direct opportunity on a card in his home country. As for Nolan, I don’t quite share the optimism that some fans have developed following his UFC debut. He appears to be a solid fighter, but I haven’t seen enough evidence to suggest he is ready to derail a prospect like Hasanov. Even though Hasanov has not leaned heavily on his wrestling throughout his professional career, I expect that skill set to become a major factor here. Whether through takedowns, top control, or positional dominance, he should be able to dictate where much of the fight takes place. Nolan is tough enough to remain competitive and potentially steal a round, but over the course of three rounds I expect Hasanov’s control and consistency to separate him on the scorecards.
Prediction: Farman Hasanov defeats Eric Nolan via Unanimous Decision (29-28).
Main Card
Middleweight: Abus Magomedov (-120) vs Michał Oleksiejczuk (+100)
Abus Magomedov is a 35-year-old German fighter with a professional record of 28-7-1. Although he represents Germany and trains there, Magomedov was born in Dagestan, Russia. Before joining the UFC, he compiled a 24-4-1 record while competing in notable promotions such as PFL and KSW. His UFC debut could hardly have gone better, as he knocked out Dustin Stoltzfus in just 19 seconds and earned a Performance of the Night bonus. The promotion rewarded him with an immediate step up in competition, matching him against future UFC champion Sean Strickland and future ranked contender Caio Borralho in consecutive fights. Magomedov lost both bouts but gained valuable experience against elite opposition.
Since then, he has earned victories over Warlley Alves, Brunno Ferreira, and Michel Pereira before falling to Joe Pyfer in his most recent outing. Magomedov owns a well-rounded résumé with 14 knockout wins, 7 submissions, and 7 decision victories. Unlike some fighters from the Dagestani region, he is not primarily a control-based wrestler. Instead, he blends striking and grappling effectively, making him dangerous in multiple phases of the fight. His UFC victories include a knockout, a submission, and two decisions, highlighting that versatility. The biggest concern throughout his UFC tenure has been his cardio, as he has occasionally faded after strong starts.
Standing across from him is Michał “Hussar” Oleksiejczuk, a 31-year-old Polish veteran with a 22-9 professional record. Oleksiejczuk has been competing in the UFC for years and owns a 10-7 record in the promotion, along with one no contest. He entered the UFC with a 12-2 record and initially appeared to score a massive upset over current light heavyweight contender Khalil Rountree Jr. in his debut. However, that result was later overturned to a no contest following a failed drug test. After posting a 4-3 record at light heavyweight, Oleksiejczuk moved down to middleweight, a decision that ultimately benefited his career despite him still being undersized for the division in both height and reach. At 185 pounds, he has gone 6-4, earning wins over Sam Alvey, Cody Brundage, Chidi Njokuani, Sedriques Dumas, Gerald Meerschaert, and Marc-André Barriault. However, whenever he has faced the division’s higher-level unranked contenders, he has generally come up short. Losses to Caio Borralho, Michel Pereira, Kevin Holland, and Shara Magomedov prevented him from breaking into the rankings.
Oleksiejczuk is one of the division’s most dangerous punchers, with 16 knockout victories among his 22 wins. However, his game remains heavily centered around striking. He has just one submission victory as a professional and has been submitted six times, making grappling a clear vulnerability. When he wins, it is usually because he overwhelms opponents early with pressure and power.
This matchup has generated plenty of disagreement among fans and oddsmakers. Magomedov enters as a slight betting favorite, yet a majority of Tapology users are siding with Oleksiejczuk. That divide makes sense given the strengths and weaknesses of both fighters. Oleksiejczuk arguably possesses the more dangerous knockout threat, while Magomedov offers the more complete overall skill set.
I expect Oleksiejczuk to have moments early, particularly on the feet where his power can change a fight instantly. However, Magomedov has consistently shown that he can survive dangerous striking exchanges against quality competition. If he avoids a firefight and mixes in his grappling, I believe he can exploit Oleksiejczuk’s biggest weakness and gradually take control of the fight. Oleksiejczuk may steal a round through his aggression and output, but over three rounds I trust Magomedov’s versatility, experience, and ability to win in multiple ways. He doesn’t need a finish to get the job done; he simply needs to fight the smarter fight.
Prediction: Abus Magomedov defeats Michał Oleksiejczuk via Unanimous Decision (29-28).
Middleweight: Brunno Ferreira (+185) vs #14 Ikram Aliskerov (-220)
Brunno “The Hulk” Ferreira is a 33-year-old Brazilian grappler with a professional record of 15-3 and a 6-3 mark in the UFC. Before reaching the promotion, Ferreira built an impressive 8-0 record with eight finishes, showcasing the aggressive style that has defined his entire career. He earned his UFC contract by defeating Leon Aliu on Dana White’s Contender Series and immediately made an impact in the Octagon with a knockout victory over Gregory Rodrigues in his debut.
Since then, Ferreira has put together one of the more entertaining résumés in the middleweight division. He owns notable victories over Gregory Rodrigues and former title challenger Marvin Vettori, while his losses have come against quality competition in Nursulton Ruziboev, Abus Magomedov, and a recent rematch with Rodrigues. Ferreira is the definition of a finisher. Fourteen of his fifteen victories have ended inside the distance, including nine by knockout, and an incredible eleven of his wins have come in the first round. Even more remarkably, he has only reached the judges’ scorecards once in his entire eighteen-fight professional career.
Standing across from him is Ikram Aliskerov, a 33-year-old Russian sambo specialist fighting out of Makhachkala, Dagestan. Aliskerov enters with a 17-2 professional record and has spent much of the past few years hovering around the edge of the middleweight rankings. While he recently fell out of several traditional rankings due to movement elsewhere in the division, he re-entered my latest Meta Rankings at No. 14.
Before joining the UFC, Aliskerov compiled a 12-1 record on the regional scene, with his lone defeat coming against none other than Khamzat Chimaev. He later earned a UFC contract by submitting Mário Sousa in the first round on Dana White’s Contender Series. Since arriving in the promotion, he has gone 4-1 with victories over Phil Hawes, Warlley Alves, André Muniz, and Jun Yong Park. His only UFC loss came against former champion Robert Whittaker in 2024. Aliskerov brings a well-rounded skill set to the cage. He has recorded seven knockout victories, five submissions, and four decision wins throughout his career. Interestingly, both of his professional losses have come by first-round knockout, creating a very specific blueprint for opponents hoping to defeat him.
That reality makes this matchup fascinating. Ferreira is exactly the type of fighter capable of testing that weakness. He thrives in chaos, carries legitimate one-shot power, and rarely allows opponents time to settle into a fight. If anyone in the division is capable of catching Aliskerov early, Ferreira certainly fits the profile.
At the same time, Ferreira’s relentless aggression is also what makes him vulnerable. He often charges forward looking for finishes and can leave openings in the process. Against a disciplined, technically sound fighter like Aliskerov, those mistakes can be costly. While Ferreira’s knockout threat is real, I trust Aliskerov’s composure, striking technique, and overall fight IQ to capitalize on the openings that eventually present themselves. This feels like a fight that won’t last long. Ferreira will come out hunting an early finish, but I believe Aliskerov survives the initial storm and lands the cleaner shot as Ferreira presses forward recklessly.
Prediction: Ikram Aliskerov defeats Brunno Ferreira via Round 1 TKO.
Flyweight: #7 Asu Almabayev (-210) vs #15 Charles Johnson (+180)
Asu Almabayev moved up from No. 9 to No. 7 in the latest Meta Rankings, while Charles Johnson slipped from No. 14 to No. 15. The flyweight Meta Rankings remain one of the most volatile and difficult divisions to sort out, but neither fighter saw a dramatic change in their overall standing.
Asu “Zulfikar” Almabayev is a 32-year-old Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist from Kazakhstan with a professional record of 23-3 and a 6-1 mark in the UFC. Before signing with the promotion, he compiled a 17-2 record on the regional scene, with one of those losses coming against current UFC contender Tagir Ulanbekov. Almabayev quickly established himself as a legitimate contender after joining the UFC, rattling off four consecutive victories over Ode Osbourne, CJ Vergara, Jose Johnson, and Matheus Nicolau. His momentum was halted by current No. 2 contender Manel Kape, who handed him his first UFC defeat. While Almabayev was competitive throughout portions of that fight, only one judge awarded him a round before Kape secured a third-round finish. To his credit, Almabayev responded well, returning to the win column with victories over Jose Ochoa and former title challenger Alex Perez.
Almabayev’s game is built around control, positioning, and grappling. Ten of his victories have come by submission, ten by decision, and just three by knockout. He has never been submitted as a professional, and both knockout losses on his record came in third rounds after extended battles. Inside the UFC, however, his finishing ability has been somewhat limited against stronger opposition. While he has secured two submissions, four of his six UFC victories have gone to the scorecards. Even when the finishes do not materialize, Almabayev is exceptionally effective at establishing top control and dictating where fights take place.
Standing across from him is one of the most unpredictable fighters on the UFC roster. Charles “InnerG” Johnson is a 35-year-old American striker with a boxing and Muay Thai background and a professional record of 19-8. Johnson’s résumé is one of the strangest in the entire flyweight division. He owns victories over current UFC champion Joshua Van, rising prospect Lone’er Kavanagh, Bruno Silva, and newly ranked contender Sumudaerji. At the same time, he has suffered losses to unranked opponents such as Ode Osbourne, Cody Durden, and Rafael Estevam.
That inconsistency makes Johnson incredibly difficult to evaluate. His UFC record stands at 8-6, yet it often feels as though he is equally capable of upsetting elite competition as he is of dropping a fight he is expected to win. There is no question about his talent. Johnson has earned seven knockouts, four submissions, and eight decision victories throughout his career. Despite his aggressive style, seven of his eight losses have come by decision, and he has never been submitted as a professional. The challenge with predicting Johnson fights is that his résumé rarely follows conventional logic. He consistently finds ways to outperform expectations against high-level opponents while simultaneously creating questions against lesser competition. That unpredictability makes him dangerous in virtually every matchup.
Still, this feels like a particularly difficult stylistic assignment. Almabayev’s strengths align perfectly with Johnson’s biggest weakness: controlling the pace and location of the fight. Johnson is at his best when he can work at range, pressure forward, and create striking exchanges. Almabayev excels at preventing exactly that. Even if he is unable to find a submission, his wrestling, positional control, and ability to bank rounds should allow him to dictate the majority of the fight.
Johnson’s durability gives him a strong chance of surviving all fifteen minutes, but I don’t see him spending enough time in advantageous positions to win rounds. Almabayev may not produce the most exciting performance, but I expect him to execute a disciplined game plan and cruise to a clear decision victory.
Prediction: Asu Almabayev defeats Charles Johnson via Unanimous Decision (30-27).
Lightweight: Nazim Sadykhov (-220) vs Matheus Camilo (+185)
Nazim “Black Wolf” Sadykhov is a 32-year-old Azerbaijani mixed martial artist with an 11-2-1 professional record and a strong 4-1-1 mark in the UFC. His career began with a loss in his professional debut, but he quickly rebounded by winning six consecutive fights and earning a spot on Dana White’s Contender Series. There, Sadykhov secured a third-round knockout of Ahmad Hassanzada to punch his ticket to the UFC. Since joining the promotion, Sadykhov has established himself as one of the more entertaining fighters in the lightweight division. He earned a Fight of the Night bonus in his victory over Evan Elder and followed that up with an impressive win against the dangerous Terrance McKinney. His draw with Viacheslav “Slava Claus” Borshchev has not aged particularly well given Borshchev’s recent struggles, but a draw is still far better than a loss. Sadykhov responded to that result with back-to-back victories over Ismael Bonfim and Nikolas Motta before dropping a decision to Fares Ziam in his most recent appearance.
Sadykhov is an aggressive finisher who rarely leaves fights in the hands of the judges. Eight of his eleven victories have come by knockout, with two more by submission. In fact, he owns just a single decision win as a professional. Interestingly, two of his four UFC victories officially came via doctor stoppage rather than knockout, a testament to the amount of damage he inflicts with his striking even when he does not land the finishing blow himself. Whether through power, volume, or attritional damage, Sadykhov consistently makes life difficult for opponents on the feet.
His opponent, Matheus “Jaguar” Camilo, is a 25-year-old Brazilian fighter with a 10-3 professional record. Camilo entered the UFC in 2025 after compiling a 9-2 mark on the regional scene. His run in the promotion has produced mixed results so far. He was submitted by Gabe Green in his debut before rebounding with a decision victory over Viacheslav Borshchev. Camilo appears to be a well-rounded fighter with a balanced skill set. He has earned four wins by knockout, two by submission, and four by decision. However, all three of his professional losses have come via submission, suggesting that grappling defense remains an area of concern. At just 25 years old, there is still plenty of room for development, but at this stage of his career he feels more like a solid UFC roster fighter than a future title contender.
This matchup presents a difficult challenge for Camilo. While he is capable in all phases of MMA, he has yet to show the type of standout skill that would make me confident in an upset over someone as proven as Sadykhov. Fighting in Azerbaijan only adds another obstacle, as Sadykhov will enjoy the support of a hometown crowd while competing in a familiar environment.
Camilo’s best chance may be to mix up his approach and force extended grappling exchanges, but even there I don’t see a clear advantage. Sadykhov has shown competence on the ground throughout his career and should be comfortable wherever the fight takes place. Ultimately, I expect his pressure, experience, and striking output to take over as the fight progresses.
Prediction: Nazim Sadykhov defeats Matheus Camilo via Round 2 TKO.
Co-Main Event
Middleweight: Michel Pereira (+280) vs Shara Magomedov (-350)
Michel “Demolidor” Pereira is a 32-year-old Brazilian striker whose exciting and unpredictable style has made him one of the UFC’s most entertaining fighters. Pereira enters this matchup with a professional record of 32-14 and a 10-5 mark inside the Octagon. He arrived in the UFC with a 22-9 record and immediately made an impression, earning a Performance of the Night bonus with a victory over Danny Roberts in his debut. His second UFC appearance resulted in a Fight of the Night bonus despite a loss to Tristan Connelly, further cementing his reputation as must-watch television.
After suffering another setback against Diego Sanchez, Pereira put together the best run of his UFC career, winning eight consecutive fights while collecting five additional performance bonuses along the way. During that stretch, he transformed from an entertaining wild card into a legitimate contender. However, that momentum came to a halt when he dropped three straight fights against Anthony Hernandez, Abus Magomedov, and Kyle Daukaus. Pereira managed to stop the skid with a split-decision victory over Zach Reese, but it appears the UFC now views him more as an action fighter than a serious title threat. Regardless of his place in the rankings, he remains one of the promotion’s most reliable sources of excitement.
Standing across from him is Shara “Bullet” Magomedov, a 32-year-old Dagestani striker with a professional record of 16-1. While most fans know him for his MMA career, Magomedov has also competed in Muay Thai, kickboxing, Modified Rules MMA, and Modified Rules Grappling. He entered the UFC undefeated at 11-0 and has gone 5-1 since joining the promotion.
Magomedov made an immediate statement by defeating Bruno Silva in his UFC debut and has continued to build his profile with victories over Antonio Trócoli, Michał Oleksiejczuk, Armen Petrosyan, and Marc-André Barriault. Impressively, each of those four wins earned him a post-fight bonus. His lone UFC defeat came against Michael “Venom” Page, who outpointed him over three rounds. Outside of MMA competition, Magomedov has also stayed active, recently competing to draws against Arman Tsarukyan and Edson Barboza in Hype FC Modified Rules Grappling matches. With 12 knockout victories and four decision wins, Magomedov has built his reputation almost entirely through striking. He has never won or lost by submission, preferring to keep fights standing and trust his dynamic offense. His creativity, power, and willingness to engage have quickly made him one of the most entertaining fighters in the middleweight division.
This matchup feels tailor-made for a Fight of the Night bonus. Both men thrive in chaotic striking exchanges, both carry legitimate knockout power, and neither is likely to spend much time looking for takedowns. There is certainly a scenario where either fighter lands a fight-ending shot early, but the more likely outcome is a high-paced striking battle filled with momentum swings and highlight-reel moments.
As dangerous as Pereira remains, I believe Magomedov is the more complete and technically polished fighter at this stage of their careers. Pereira’s athleticism and unpredictability can create problems for anyone, but Magomedov’s striking arsenal is deeper, his defense is more reliable, and his shot selection is generally cleaner. Over the course of fifteen minutes, I expect those advantages to become increasingly apparent. Pereira will have moments, but Magomedov should be able to consistently land the more impactful strikes and control the tempo of the fight. Rather than finding a finish, I think he wins a competitive but clear decision in what could end up being one of the most entertaining fights on the entire card.
Prediction: Shara Magomedov defeats Michel Pereira via Unanimous Decision (30-27).
Main Event
Lightweight: Rafael Fiziev (-115) vs #13 Manuel Torres (-105)
Before the introduction of the Meta Rankings, Rafael Fiziev sat at No. 11 while Manuel Torres held the No. 15 spot. Following the latest update, Torres has climbed to No. 13 while Fiziev has fallen completely out of the rankings. Regardless of where they are placed, both fighters remain firmly in the conversation as fringe top-15 lightweights. More importantly, they are two of the division’s most aggressive action fighters, making this a fitting main event for a card built around exciting matchups.
Rafael “Ataman” Fiziev is a 33-year-old Muay Thai specialist who represents Azerbaijan despite being born in Kazakhstan, attending college in Kyrgyzstan, and training out of Thailand. He enters this fight with a 13-5 professional record and a 7-5 mark in the UFC. Fiziev was originally scheduled to compete on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2018 but withdrew from the bout. After picking up another regional victory, he earned a UFC contract without ever needing to fight on the show.
His UFC debut ended in a loss to Magomed Mustafaev, but Fiziev quickly established himself as one of the most entertaining strikers in the sport. He rattled off six consecutive victories, collecting three Performance of the Night bonuses and two Fight of the Night awards along the way. That run included wins over respected names such as Rafael dos Anjos, Renato Moicano, and King Green. The momentum eventually slowed when he suffered back-to-back losses to current champion Justin Gaethje, with a knee injury defeat against Mateusz Gamrot sandwiched between them. After rebounding with a win over Ignacio Bahamondes, Fiziev was defeated by Mauricio Ruffy in his most recent outing. Throughout his career, Fiziev has built a reputation as a high-level striker capable of producing highlight-reel moments. He owns eight knockout victories, one submission, and four decision wins. While he remains a dangerous finisher, many of his recent performances have showcased his durability, technical ability, and willingness to engage in extended striking battles rather than pure one-shot knockout power.
Standing across from him is Manuel “El Loco” Torres, a 31-year-old Mexican finisher with a professional record of 17-3 and a 5-1 UFC record. Torres earned his contract by defeating Kolton Englund on Dana White’s Contender Series and has been must-watch television ever since.
Few fighters on the roster have a résumé quite like Torres. His UFC victories over Frank Camacho, Nikolas Motta, Chris Duncan, Drew Dober, and Grant Dawson all ended in the first round. His lone UFC loss also ended in the opening frame, when Ignacio Bahamondes knocked him out. Outside of a single split-decision victory, every fight of Torres’ professional career has ended in the first round. He owns nine knockout victories and seven submissions, showcasing finishing ability in every area of the sport. Even more impressively, all five of his UFC victories earned him a Performance of the Night bonus. Torres fights with a relentless offensive mindset. He throws fast, powerful combinations and attacks with the urgency of someone who never plans on hearing the final horn. That style makes him dangerous against anyone, but it also creates opportunities for opponents willing to withstand the early storm.
This matchup feels almost guaranteed to produce fireworks. It may not develop into a five-round war worthy of Fight of the Night because there is a very real chance it never makes it out of the opening round. Both men are elite offensive strikers who thrive in chaotic exchanges and are comfortable taking risks in pursuit of a finish.
The betting odds reflect just how competitive this matchup is. There are legitimate arguments for both fighters. If the fight extends into the later rounds, I believe Fiziev’s experience, durability, and technical striking give him a significant advantage. However, the question is whether he can survive long enough to get there. Torres has made a career out of overwhelming opponents before they can settle into a rhythm, and I think that trend continues here. Fiziev remains one of the toughest and most skilled fighters in the division, but Torres’ explosiveness and finishing instincts make him a dangerous opponent in the opening minutes. In what would be the biggest win of his career, I think Torres finds the decisive shot before Fiziev can take control of the fight.
Prediction: Manuel Torres defeats Rafael Fiziev via Round 1 KO.
