This weekend we have 2 major fights in the Light Heavyweight division with the championship bout between Ankalaev and Pereira and potential title eliminator between Procházka and Rountree. I don’t think the title picture is as clear as it seems though following Carlos Ulberg’s victory last week in Perth. I’m going to go over the title picture following each possible result from UFC 320 this week.
Ruling out other Contenders
Jan Błachowicz, Jamahal Hill, Dominick Reyes, Aleksandar Rakić, Volkan Oezdemir, Nikita Krylov, and Mingyang Zhang all lost their most recent fights. Azamat Murzakanov and Alonzo Menifield’s most recent wins are against unranked fighters and they’re not close to the title picture just yet. Johnny Walker has already lost to Ankalaev and also has a loss to Volkan Oezdemir. The win over Mingyang Zhang isn’t enough to get him to him in the title picture. The only other contender I believe is truly close to the title picture is #11 Bogdan Guskov, especially if he wins his booked matchup with #5 Jan Błachowicz which would give him a 5 fight win streak. While I think Guskov could be an option for a title shot, I think he ultimately is 1 more big fight away even if he beats Jan Błachowicz, and would likely be booked against one of the losers from UFC 320.
Favorites Magomed Ankalaev and Jiří Procházka win
The most likely result is the one that makes Procházka and Rountree a true title eliminator. Procházka will have earned his title shot here. Procházka is ranked higher than Ulberg. Procházka’s opponent Rountree was higher ranked than Ulberg’s opponent Reyes. In this case it’s a no-brainer Ankalaev vs Procházka title fight. Just for completeness, Alex Pereira is not going to get an immediate trilogy either.
Alex Pereira and Jiří Procházka win
This situation is what made me write this article in the first place. Jiří is 0-2 against Poatan and I’m not convinced he gets a trilogy when there are other options. Ankalaev, depending on the way this fight goes, would also have a case for a trilogy against Alex since they are 1-1 against each other. Ultimately in this situation I would book Ankalaev vs Jiří as a title eliminator to earn a potential trilogy against Alex. For the actual title fight though, it would be Carlos Ulberg getting a shot at Alex Pereira. I would also match Guskov (assuming a win over Błachowicz) against Rountree in this reality.
Alex Pereira and Khalil Rountree win
In this situation, there are 3 main options. Option 1, an Ankalaev trilogy. This seems very unlikely as an immediate rematch. Ankalaev would likely have to win another fight to get a trilogy with Alex. Option 2, the most obvious, Khalil Rountree gets the title shot for beating Jiří. The problem with that, is he just lost a title fight to Pereira in October. That was the fight of the night at UFC 307 and was an uncommon 4th round TKO. It is definitely not an impossibility but I think the UFC could look elsewhere. That brings us to option 3, Carlos Ulberg who has won 9 fights in a row. Even though he may be ranked lower than Rountree in this situation where Rountree beats Jiří, I think Carlos Ulberg gets the title shot. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if it was Pereira vs Rountree 2.
Magomed Ankalaev and Khalil Rountree win
To me this situation is the most interesting. Neither Carlos Ulberg or Khalil Rountree has fought Ankalaev so this is simply a question of who deserves the title fight more. Rountree has been ranked 1 spot lower than Carlos Ulberg but Jiří Procházka is a much bigger win than Dominick Reyes. Rountree has also had a title opportunity before, Ulberg hasn’t. Ultimately though, I think with the Procházka Rountree fight coming on the same card as Ankalaev vs Poatan; Rountree has the edge over Ulberg if he wins. The potential Alex title fight is a different animal with past fights coming into play but in this clean case with Ankalaev, I think Rountree likely gets it. Don’t be surprised that if Rountree wins by decision or doesn’t put up a good fight, Ulberg may get the nod over him though.
Summary
I do think the most likely scenario of Ankalaev winning leads to the Procházka vs Rountree fight becoming a title eliminator. In the event that Alex wins though, Carlos Ulberg has a real shot to jump the both of them and get the next title shot.
