The World Cup is heading to North America, with the United States, Mexico, and Canada serving as joint hosts for soccer’s biggest event. Every four years, I find myself glued to just about every match, even if I don’t follow the sport as closely between tournaments. So, in the interest of full transparency, I’m not claiming to be a soccer expert. I’m simply a fan who loves the spectacle of the World Cup—and that means I couldn’t resist putting together a set of predictions, informed or otherwise. I’ll break down each group, share my thoughts on every team, and then work my way through the knockouts until only one nation is left standing.
Group Stage
Group A – Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Czechia
Mexico enters this group as the Pool 1 team thanks to their position as host. Czechia, like the 3 other UEFA Play-In winners, are likely much better than their Pool 4 position would indicate. I would consider myself slightly higher on Czechia and South Korea than consensus. I have Czechia pulling off a Draw with Mexico, but falling to South Korea, with Mexico winning the group with 7 points, South Korea finishing second with 6 and Czechia making it out in 3rd place with 4 points. South Africa is eliminated with 0 points.
Group B – Canada, Switzerland, Qatar, Bosnia & Herzegovina
Canada, as another host, is the Pool 1 team but is considerably weaker than it’s fellow hosts, leaving this group wide open. I’m a fan of Switzerland this year, and I think Bosnia & Herzegovina has some opportunity to surprise. I have a lot of draws in this group, with Canada drawing Switzerland and Bosnia, while Bosnia also draws Qatar. Switzerland leads the group with 7 points, Canada finishes unbeaten with 5, Bosnia finishes 3rd but is eliminated with just 2 points, and Qatar is also eliminated with just 1 point. As much as I like the Bosnia team, there will be a lot of low scoring games in this group, and with so many draws there just wasn’t a way for them to accumulate enough points to qualify for knockouts.
Group C – Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti
A tough group at the top here as Brazil and Morocco are some of the tournament favorites, while Scotland and Haiti are often seen toward the bottom. I have Brazil winning the Morocco match, as well as the other 2 to finish with 9 points, Morocco takes care of business to finish with 6 and Scotland beats Haiti to finish with 3. Scotland can’t overcome the goal differential from their 2 losses though, as is the only 3rd place finisher to be eliminated with 3 points. Haiti does not earn a point and finishes 4th.
Group D – USA, Australia, Paraguay, Turkiye
The USA is the last host country to get their group. They drew a relatively easy group, but with no clear bottom-feeder in the group things could get interesting fast. I have the USA drawing with Turkiye but topping the group with 7 points. Turkiye drawing with Paraguay as well and finishing with 5, and Paraguay drawing with Australia and finishing with 2, while Australia finishes with 1, eliminating both teams. Of all the teams I predicted to finish 4th though, Australia is the one I’d be least surprised to see make it out of groups, that’s what makes this group so interesting.
Group E – Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curacao
Germany leads the way in this group but none of these teams should be counted out. Even curacao had some strong games in qualifying. I have Ecuador drawing with Germany and Curacao and ending on 5 points, allowing Germany to top the group with 7. Ivory Coast beats Curacao to escape the group with 3 points and Curacao finishes with 1 and is eliminated. I will be rooting for Curacao to escape the group but I couldn’t find them enough points as I think Ivory Coast outmatches them.
Group F – Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, Sweden
Japan is one of my teams to watch this tournament, but Netherlands is a formidable foe at the top of the group. Sweden, on the other hand, is a team I have no confidence in following qualifying. They bombed in UEFA qualification, staying alive for the play-in thanks solely to their Nations League performance despite winning 0 games in a 6 game group and finishing last. They then won just 2 games to qualify for the World Cup. I have Netherlands and Japan drawing each other and tying with 7 points a piece, with the Dutch winning the group on goal differential, Tunisia then beats Sweden to barely escape the group with 3 points, and Sweden finishes with 0.
Group G – Belgium, Iran, Egypt, New Zealand
Belgium is the most vulnerable Pool 1 team, outside of the hosts, in my eyes. This group draw though, does them a lot of favors. Even though I don’t particularly believe in them, I have them finishing the group on 9 points, sweeping all 3 games. I have Egypt beating Iran but drawing New Zealand to finish on 4 points, and Iran taking care of business against New Zealand to make it out of the group with 3 points. New Zealand is eliminated with 1 point. OFC’s New Zealand is very hard to rank, and this is a group that gives them some room to work but I ultimately couldn’t pull the trigger on picking them to beat Egypt or Iran.
Group H – Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cabo Verde
This is another group with 2 clear top teams and 2 clear bottom teams. Spain is my pre-tournament favorite, but Uruguay I don’t trust quite as much. I have Spain sweeping and earning 9 points, Uruguay beating the other 2 to finish with 6, and Cabo Verde taking advantage of their world cup debut, beating Saudi Arabia by multiple goals and escaping the group on just 3 points. Saudi Arabia is held pointless and eliminated.
Group I – France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq
This might be the group of death, with 3 very capable teams, and Iraq who isn’t exactly a bottom-feeder either. I have France drawing Norway to top the group with 7 points, Norway draws Senegal to finish second with 5 points, while Senegal makes it out with 4. Unfortunately, Iraq gets no points and is eliminated, tough draw for them.
Group J – Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan
I really don’t have strong opinions on this group, other than Argentina. Because of that, I have Argentina sweeping and finishing on 9 points, with Algeria drawing with Austria and Jordan. This causes Austria to finish second with 4 points, while Algeria finishes with 2 and Jordan with 1, eliminating both nations.
Group K – Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo
Portugal and Colombia is a strong top to a group, throw in my dark horse of the tournament Uzbekistan and always feisty DR Congo and this group is going to be exciting. I have Uzbekistan upsetting Portugal, but with Portugal still topping the group with 6 points. Colombia takes care of Non-Portugal business and gets 6 points as well, good for 2nd. Uzbekistan draws DRC but their Portugal win gets them to 4 points and into the knockouts. DR Congo gets 1 point but is eliminated.
Group L – England, Croatia, Panama, Ghana
While Uzbekistan was my overall dark horse, Croatia is my more traditional dark horse, as in dark horse to win it all. I have them topping the group with 9 points after upsetting England who finish with 6. I have Panama beating Ghana to earn 3 points and barely escape the group, while Ghana is eliminated with 0.
Round of 32
South Korea shocks the hosts and takes down Canada 2-1
Germany eases past Tunisia 3-1
Netherlands takes care of business against a very strong Morocco team, 2-1 in Extra Time
Japan shocks the world and eliminates Brazil 2-0
France dominates Cabo Verde, ending their Cinderella run, 4-1
Norway and Ecuador head to penalties tied 1-1 where Norway survives
Mexico beats Ivory Coast 1-0 on home soil
An unfortunate draw for me as Croatia and Uzbekistan face off, Uzbekistan keeps it tied at 0, but Croatia wins it 1-0 in extra time
USA beats Senegal 2-1 on home soil
Belgium beat Czechia 2-0
England eliminate Colombia 3-2
Spain beats Austria 3-0
Switzerland beats Iran 2-0
Uruguay leads late but Argentina equalizes and wins the game in extra time, 2-1
Portugal beats Panama 2-0
Turkiye beats Egypt 1-0
Round of 16
France takes care of Germany 2-0
Netherlands eliminates South Korea 2-1
Japan beat Norway 1-0
Croatia eliminate hosts Mexico 3-1
Spain beats England 3-2 in a battle of tournament favorites
USA beats Belgium 2-1 on home soil
Argentina beats Turkiye 3-0
Switzerland upsets Portugal 1-0
Quarterfinals
Netherlands upsets France 2-1
Spain ends the USA’s run with a decisive 3-0 victory
Croatia beat Japan 2-1 to continue their run
Switzerland shocks Argentina, bringing a 0-0 game into penalties and coming out on top
Semifinals
Spain beat Netherlands 2-1
Croatia score 2 early on Switzerland and cruise to a surprising 3-0 victory
3rd Place Match
Netherlands win 1-0 over Switzerland to claim 3rd
Finals
Croatia scores first, but Spain answers with 3 of their own to win 3-1 and capture their 2nd World Cup title.
