Headlined by a highly anticipated rematch that dates back to their 2017 meeting in RIZIN, it’s unfortunate that this top contender bout is taking place inside the Apex. Assuming Alexandre Pantoja remains sidelined, the winner should be next in line for a flyweight title shot against Joshua Van. Beyond the main event, the card has everything that’s expected of a typical Apex card, featuring a mix of prospects, newcomers, and fighters looking to make a name for themselves. While it may lack star power, there are still plenty of intriguing matchups that should deliver. As always, I’ll be breaking down every fight on the card and giving my picks for each matchup.

Prelims

Featherweight: Shane Collins (-160) vs Otari Tanzilovi (+145)

The first fight of the night features a pair of UFC debutants. Shane “Hollywood” Collins is an undefeated American freestyle fighter. At just 26 years old, Collins has compiled a 7-0 professional record along with a reported 12-2 amateur record. He has spent most of his professional career competing for Urijah Faber’s A1 Combat promotion, where he won a championship and has since defended the belt twice.

Collins has four knockout victories and one guillotine submission on his professional record. As an amateur and early in his professional career, many of his fights went deep into the later rounds or reached the judges’ scorecards. Recently, however, he has shown improved finishing ability, ending each of his last two fights and three of his last four within the opening two minutes. To me, that suggests a dangerous striker who is continuing to develop and has earned his opportunity in the UFC. One potential concern is activity. His most recent fight took place in early May, giving him a relatively short turnaround for this matchup. That said, he likely absorbed very little damage after scoring another quick knockout victory.

Standing across from him is 28-year-old Georgian kickboxer Otari Tanzilovi, who enters with a 10-1 professional record. His lone defeat came not on the regional scene, but on Season 8 of Dana White’s Contender Series, where he dropped a split decision to Josias Musasa. While Musasa earned a UFC contract with the victory, Dana White did not appear to fully agree with the judges’ decision. Tanzilovi had entered the bout as a -210 betting favorite, making the result somewhat surprising.

After rebounding with a victory in Fury FC, Tanzilovi bypasses a return trip to the Contender Series and receives a direct call to the UFC roster. His fighting style matches his kickboxing background. Seven of his ten professional victories have come by knockout, and he has never won via submission. Most of those finishes came in the first round, highlighting his early power and aggression. However, as the level of competition has increased, his finishing ability has become less reliable. Each of his last three fights has gone to a decision, including his loss to Musasa. Tanzilovi also hasn’t fought in over a year, a stark contrast from Collins’ short turnaround.

It’s also worth noting that Musasa has struggled since reaching the UFC. He currently sits at 0-2 in the promotion and appears to be fighting to keep his roster spot. While it’s always difficult to project debuting fighters, I believe Collins is the more likely of the two to prove UFC caliber. His pace, cardio, and ability to fight effectively over three rounds stand out to me. If Tanzilovi cannot secure an early finish, I expect Collins to take over as the fight progresses and earn a decision victory.

Prediction: Shane Collins by unanimous decision (29-28).

Women’s Bantamweight: #8 Karol Rosa (-135) vs #11 Luana Santos (+110)

Karol Rosa is a 31-year-old Brazilian Muay Thai practitioner with a professional record of 19-7, including an 8-4 mark inside the UFC. She suffered three losses on the regional scene, but all three came against fighters who eventually reached either the UFC or Dana White’s Contender Series, making them respectable defeats in hindsight.

Rosa began her UFC career with four consecutive victories but has gone 4-4 since. Despite the inconsistency, her résumé has aged extremely well. She owns victories over current #3-ranked Joselyne Edwards, #7 Yana Santos, and #12 Nora Cornolle, demonstrating both her high ceiling and ability to compete with some of the division’s best. Her losses have also come against quality opposition, including #4 Norma Dumont, #5 Ailín Pérez, and #6 Irene Aldana. While Rosa may not be a true title contender, she has firmly established herself as one of the division’s premier gatekeepers and a fighter capable of testing anyone outside the championship picture.

One criticism of Rosa is her lack of finishing ability. All 12 of her UFC appearances have gone to the judges’ scorecards. She has never been knocked out in her professional career, though she was submitted twice before reaching the UFC. Despite her decision-heavy style, she does own a Fight of the Night bonus from her bout with Irene Aldana.

Across from her is 26-year-old Brazilian judoka Luana Santos, one of the rising prospects in the women’s bantamweight division. Santos enters with a 10-2 professional record and a 5-1 mark in the UFC. Prior to signing with the promotion, she competed in LFA, where she suffered one of her two professional losses. Her only UFC defeat came against Casey O’Neill, who is currently ranked #11 at flyweight.

Following that loss, Santos moved up to bantamweight and has looked impressive, going 2-0 against a pair of unranked opponents. While neither victory came against a ranked fighter, her win over Melissa Croden is about as strong an unranked victory as you can find in the current division. Santos possesses a clear grappling advantage in most matchups thanks to her judo and wrestling background. She has earned five of her ten professional victories by submission and has also shown finishing ability on the feet with one knockout win.

This matchup highlights the classic prospect-versus-veteran dynamic. It’s easy to understand why Rosa enters as the betting favorite. Her résumé is significantly stronger, and she has already proven she can compete with ranked opposition. That said, I like the stylistic matchup for Santos. Her grappling could create problems for Rosa, and she appears to have the physical tools to continue climbing the rankings.

The public seems overwhelmingly behind Santos, while much of the betting money has come in on Rosa. In this case, I’m trusting my instincts and siding with the younger prospect. Rosa is more than capable of proving me wrong, but I’ll take Luana Santos to edge out a decision on the ground.

Prediction: Luana Santos by unanimous decision (30-27).

Welterweight: Leon Shahbazyan (+255) vs Levan Chokheli (-310)

Leon “S.O.G.” Shahbazyan is a 30-year-old American fighter with a 12-4 professional record. While the UFC lists him as a striker, his results tell a different story. Leon Shahbazyan has earned 11 of his 12 victories by submission, with his lone non-submission finish coming by knockout. Just as notable, he has never heard the final bell as a professional. All 12 of his wins have come inside the distance, while each of his four losses has come by knockout. Leon entered Dana White’s Contender Series with a 7-1 record but fell short against Phil Rowe. Nearly seven years later, he finally gets his UFC opportunity after putting together four consecutive victories under the Tuff-N-Uff banner. On paper, a 12-4 record may not immediately stand out compared to some recent UFC signees, but his submission ability gives him a chance against almost anyone. If he can get fights to the mat, he becomes an immediate threat to end them.

Standing across from him is 29-year-old Georgian striker Levan Chokheli. Chokheli enters with a 14-3 record and one no contest. Known for his power, he has scored 11 knockout victories, with his remaining wins coming by decision. He has never won by submission and has been submitted once himself, making this matchup a fascinating clash of styles. Chokheli was a wrecking ball on the regional scene, opening his career with nine knockouts in his first nine victories. However, his run in Bellator was less dominant, as he posted a 4-3 record against tougher competition. Even so, he remains a dangerous and technically sound striker who should hold a significant advantage whenever this fight takes place on the feet.

This feels like a classic grappler-versus-striker matchup. In most cases, I tend to favor the fighter with the submission threat because they have more paths to victory. However, this matchup feels different. While I expect Shahbazyan to have success early and potentially control portions of the opening round on the ground, I think Chokheli’s power eventually becomes the deciding factor. If Shahbazyan can’t secure a finish during his best moments, he’ll be forced to spend time striking with a dangerous knockout artist.

Prediction: Levan Chokheli by second-round knockout.

Featherweight: Michael Aswell Jr. (-430) vs Gaston Bolaños (+310)

“The Texas Kid” Michael Aswell Jr. is a 25-year-old American featherweight with an 11-4 professional record, including a 1-2 mark in the UFC. Before reaching the promotion, Aswell went 9-1 in Fury FC, with his lone defeat coming against future UFC fighter Yadier del Valle. He later appeared on Dana White’s Contender Series, where he dropped a split decision to Bogdan Grad but still managed to earn a UFC opportunity shortly afterward.

Since joining the UFC, Aswell has suffered decision losses to Bolaji Oki and Luke Riley but picked up an impressive knockout victory over Lucas Almeida. Six of his eleven professional wins have come by knockout, while his remaining victories have gone to the judges’ scorecards. Perhaps most notably, he has never been finished in his career. While Aswell has yet to establish himself as a high-level UFC featherweight, he’s far from a pushover, and at just 25 years old, there is still plenty of room for growth and development.

Standing across from him is Gaston “The DreamKiller” Bolaños, a 33-year-old Peruvian striker with an 8-5 professional record and a 2-2 mark inside the UFC. Before transitioning to mixed martial arts, Bolaños built an extensive background in Muay Thai and kickboxing. He made his MMA debut in Bellator, where he compiled a respectable 6-3 record before eventually signing with the UFC. Inside the Octagon, Bolaños has earned victories over Aaron Phillips and Cortavious Romious, while suffering losses to Marcus McGhee and Quang Le. Both of his UFC wins came by decision, while he was finished in each of his defeats. Throughout his career, six of his eight victories have come by knockout. He has never won by submission and has been submitted three times, highlighting both his striking-heavy approach and a potential weakness on the ground. Another interesting wrinkle in this matchup is that Bolaños will be competing at featherweight for the first time after spending his UFC career at bantamweight.

This fight feels destined to play out on the feet. Neither fighter is known for offensive grappling, and both are at their best when exchanging strikes. That should make for an entertaining matchup and one of the more action-oriented fights on the card. From a pure talent perspective, I believe Aswell is the better fighter. He’s younger, more durable, and has faced solid competition throughout his career. That said, I don’t think the betting line accurately reflects the gap between these two fighters. While my official pick is Aswell by decision, the value side of the betting market is clearly Bolaños. If the odds remain this wide, I’d rather take a shot on the underdog than lay a heavy price on Aswell.

Prediction: Michael Aswell Jr. by split decision (29-28).

Flyweight: Mitch Raposo (+170) vs Allan Nascimento (-200)

Twenty-seven-year-old American freestyle fighter Mitch Raposo enters this matchup with a 10-3 professional record. Raposo’s path to the UFC was anything but straightforward. He began his career 5-0 before suffering a loss to Liudvik Sholinian on The Ultimate Fighter. He later earned a spot on Dana White’s Contender Series but came up short against Jake Hadley, who missed weight for the bout. Despite those setbacks, Raposo continued to find success on the regional scene, winning every fight outside of those appearances before finally earning his UFC contract. His start in the promotion was frustrating, as he dropped his first two UFC bouts via split decision. However, he recently broke into the win column with a victory over Azat Maksum.

Raposo is a well-rounded fighter with four knockout victories and three submission wins on his résumé. While he doesn’t possess any glaring weaknesses, he has yet to demonstrate the type of standout skill that separates contenders from the rest of the flyweight division. At this stage, he appears to be a serviceable UFC flyweight, but it’s difficult to project him as a future contender.

His opponent, Allan “Puro Osso” Nascimento, is a 34-year-old Brazilian fighter with a 22-6 professional record and a 4-1 mark inside the UFC. Nascimento first appeared on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2018 with a 17-4 record but lost a split decision to Raulian Paiva. Following that defeat, he stepped away from competition for nearly three years before returning to win another fight and eventually earn a UFC contract. Nascimento lost his promotional debut to Tagir Ulanbekov but has been flawless ever since, winning four consecutive fights and positioning himself on the doorstep of the flyweight rankings. Grappling is clearly his greatest strength. Sixteen of his twenty-two professional victories have come by submission, while only one has come by knockout. Inside the UFC, he has earned two submission victories and two decision wins, collecting Performance of the Night bonuses for both of his finishes.

In my opinion, Nascimento should be a significantly larger favorite than the current betting line suggests. While it’s unusual to describe a 34-year-old as a prospect, he still feels like a fighter whose best work may be ahead of him, largely because he has only recently begun to establish himself against UFC-level competition. Raposo is competent on the mat and won’t be completely out of his element if the fight hits the ground. The problem is that Nascimento is one of the better submission specialists in the division. On the feet, I also struggle to find a clear path for Raposo to consistently win exchanges or build enough offense to offset Nascimento’s grappling advantage.

Ultimately, I think this is a difficult stylistic matchup for Raposo. Nascimento should have the edge wherever the fight takes place, but his grappling is where the difference becomes most apparent. I expect him to waste little time getting the fight to the mat and finding a finish.

Prediction: Allan Nascimento by first-round submission.

Women’s Bantamweight: #13 Bia Mesquita (-600) vs Melissa Mullins (+450)

Thirty-five-year-old Bia “The Lady GOAT” Mesquita is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist who enters this fight with an undefeated 7-0 professional MMA record, including a 2-0 mark in the UFC. Despite her relatively short MMA career, Mesquita has already established herself as one of the most dangerous submission artists on the women’s roster. Before transitioning to mixed martial arts, Mesquita built one of the most decorated grappling résumés in combat sports. A 10-time world champion in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, she owns grappling victories over an impressive list of MMA veterans and champions, including Mackenzie Dern, Jena Bishop, Miesha Tate, Bia Basilio, and Jennifer Maia.

Mesquita began her MMA career in LFA, where she compiled a perfect 4-0 record before signing with the UFC. Since joining the promotion, she has submitted both Irina Alekseeva and Montserrat Rendon, quickly proving that her elite grappling translates to the highest level of the sport. Five of her seven professional victories have come by rear-naked choke, while her remaining wins came via TKO and opponent disqualification. She has never reached the judges’ scorecards and has never been forced into a third round. Despite not yet holding a victory over a ranked opponent, Mesquita has already worked her way into the bantamweight rankings and now receives another opportunity to build momentum against an unranked opponent in Melissa Mullins.

Mullins, known as “No Mess,” is a 34-year-old English fighter with a 7-2 professional record and a 2-2 mark in the UFC. After beginning her career 4-0, she earned a UFC contract and picked up victories over Irina Alekseeva and Klaudia Syguła. Her two losses have come against Nora Cornolle and Darya Zheleznyakova, both fighters who have spent time in the rankings or on the fringes of contention. Mullins is primarily a striker, with four knockout victories and three decision wins on her professional record. She has shown solid durability throughout her career and, notably, has never been submitted. While she may not be a true title contender at this stage, she has demonstrated enough ability to be considered a borderline top-15 bantamweight.

This is another classic striker-versus-grappler matchup, but unlike some of the more competitive stylistic battles on this card, the grappling gap here appears enormous. Mullins is a capable fighter, but she has never faced a submission specialist with credentials anywhere close to Mesquita’s. While avoiding submissions against regional competition is one thing, surviving against a multiple-time world champion is an entirely different challenge. Unless Mullins can keep the fight standing for the entirety of the contest, it’s difficult to envision many paths to victory. Mesquita’s grappling has looked every bit as dominant in MMA as it did throughout her decorated jiu-jitsu career, and I expect that trend to continue here.

Prediction: Bia Mesquita by first-round submission.

Flyweight: André Lima (-600) vs Kevin Borjas (+420)

André “Mascote” Lima is a 27-year-old Brazilian kickboxer who enters this matchup with a perfect 11-0 professional record. Before fully committing to MMA, Lima competed in both kickboxing and Muay Thai, developing the striking foundation that has become the centerpiece of his fighting style. He began his MMA career with five consecutive victories, all by knockout, before earning a spot on Dana White’s Contender Series.

On the Contender Series, Lima secured a decision victory over Rickson Zenidim to earn a UFC contract. Since joining the promotion, he has continued his unbeaten run, winning all four of his UFC appearances. His promotional debut ended in one of the more unusual results in recent memory, as he earned a victory by opponent disqualification. Since then, he has added two decision wins and, most recently, his first UFC finish with a third-round submission victory. After more than a year away from competition, Lima returns looking to continue his climb toward the flyweight rankings and potentially position himself for a top-15 opportunity in the near future as one of the division’s best prospects.

Standing across from him is Kevin “El Gallo Negro” Borjas, a 28-year-old Peruvian striker with a 10-5 professional record. Borjas began his career with an impressive 7-1 run before earning a UFC contract through Dana White’s Contender Series. However, his time in the UFC has been challenging, as he currently holds a 1-4 record inside the Octagon.

That record may look concerning at first glance, but context matters. Borjas has consistently faced tough competition, including current flyweight champion Joshua Van, as well as Alessandro Costa, Sumudaerji, and Imanol Rodriguez. His lone UFC victory came against Ronaldo Rodríguez. While the results have not gone his way, the level of opposition helps explain some of those struggles. Borjas is a dangerous striker in his own right. Eight of his ten professional victories have come by knockout, and he has never won by submission. On the other side of the equation, he has suffered knockout losses twice and has also dropped two decisions in the UFC. His only submission defeat came prior to reaching the promotion.

This matchup feels tailor-made to play out primarily on the feet, where both fighters are most comfortable. Borjas possesses legitimate power and is likely better than his UFC record suggests, but he continues to find himself matched against rising prospects, and this appears to be another difficult assignment. Lima should have the cleaner technique, the better overall skill set, and the momentum of an undefeated fighter continuing to improve. While Borjas has been stopped before, I don’t necessarily expect Lima to chase a finish. Instead, I see him controlling the striking exchanges over three rounds, landing the more effective shots, and steadily pulling away on the scorecards.

Prediction: André Lima by unanimous decision.

Main Card

Featherweight: Vinicius Oliveira (-210) vs Andre Fili (+180)

Vinicius “LokDog” Oliveira enters this matchup as the UFC’s #12-ranked bantamweight, but he’ll be making the move up to featherweight for this bout. The 30-year-old Brazilian has emerged as one of the more exciting prospects in the lower weight classes thanks to his aggressive style and finishing ability. Oliveira owns a 23-4 professional record and is 4-1 since joining the UFC. Before reaching the promotion Oliveira compiled an 18-3 record. He then earned his UFC contract with a knockout victory over Victor Madrigal on Dana White’s Contender Series. He carried that momentum into the Octagon, winning his first four UFC appearances. The highlight of that run came against Kyler Phillips, a victory that propelled him into the bantamweight rankings and established him as a legitimate contender.

His unbeaten UFC run came to an end in his most recent outing when he faced a significant step up in competition against Mario Bautista. Oliveira was submitted in the second round, suffering the fourth loss of his professional career. While he built his reputation as a knockout artist, it’s worth noting that his power has not translated quite as effectively at the UFC level. Despite recording 16 career knockout victories, only one of his four UFC wins has come by stoppage, with the other three requiring the judges’ scorecards. Now moving up a weight class, it seems even less likely that he’ll be able to rely solely on the power that carried him through much of his regional career.

Standing across from him is veteran featherweight Andre “Touchy” Fili. The 35-year-old American enters with a 25-13 professional record and has spent more than a decade competing inside the UFC. Fili owns a 13-12 UFC record with one no contest and remains one of the division’s most experienced gatekeepers. Throughout his career, Fili has proven to be a well-rounded fighter capable of winning in a variety of ways. He has earned 10 victories by knockout, three by submission, and 12 by decision. While he has never quite broken into title contention, he has consistently given quality opponents difficult fights. In many ways, Fili’s career has been defined by his competitiveness. Since arriving in the UFC in 2013, he has almost alternated wins and losses, and many of his recent bouts have been razor-close split decisions.

On paper, this feels like a difficult test for Oliveira. Fili’s experience, size, and durability make him a dangerous opponent for anyone making their featherweight debut. The most logical outcome is probably an Oliveira decision victory, as his speed and athleticism should allow him to win exchanges and outwork Fili over three rounds.

That said, I can’t shake the feeling that Oliveira delivers a statement performance here. Even though the move to featherweight raises legitimate questions about his knockout power, he remains the younger, faster, and more explosive fighter. If he can catch Fili early before the veteran settles into the fight, I think he has a chance to remind everyone why he was viewed as such a dangerous prospect in the first place.

Prediction: Vinicius Oliveira by first-round knockout.

Featherweight: Melsik Baghdasaryan (+240) vs Murtazali Magomedov (-305)

Melsik “The Gun” Baghdasaryan is a 34-year-old Armenian striker with a diverse combat sports background that includes boxing, Muay Thai, and kickboxing. He enters this matchup with an 8-3 professional MMA record and has built his career around a technical, well-rounded striking game. Five of his eight victories have come by knockout, while the remaining three have gone to the judges’ scorecards. Baghdasaryan went 4-1 on the regional circuit before earning an opportunity on Dana White’s Contender Series, where he defeated Dennis Buzukja. Surprisingly, the victory did not immediately earn him a UFC contract, but the promotion signed him shortly afterward anyway. Since joining the UFC, he has posted a 3-2 record. His lone victory streak inside the promotion saw him win three of his first four fights, with his only setback during that stretch coming against Josh Culibao.

Activity has been an issue in recent years, however. Since the beginning of 2024, Baghdasaryan has fought only once, suffering a loss to Jean Silva, who has since emerged as one of the featherweight division’s top contenders. While Baghdasaryan remains a dangerous striker, his biggest weakness has always been his ground game. Two of his three professional losses have come by submission, and he has never recorded a submission victory himself.

Standing across from him is one of the more intriguing newcomers on the card. Murtazali “The Highlight” Magomedov is a 26-year-old fighter representing Kyrgyzstan who brings a perfect 10-0 professional record into his UFC debut. Before turning professional, he also compiled an impressive 7-0 amateur record.

What stands out most about Magomedov is his finishing ability. All ten of his professional victories have come inside the distance, split evenly between five knockouts and five submissions. He has never reached the judges’ scorecards as a professional, showcasing both an aggressive style and a well-rounded skill set. While Magomedov may not possess one-shot knockout power, he compensates with excellent pressure, strong combinations, effective ground-and-pound, and a dangerous submission game. His performance on Dana White’s Contender Series was particularly impressive, as he stopped Brahyam Zurcher with a first-round knockout to earn his UFC contract.

This matchup feels like a difficult stylistic draw for Baghdasaryan. On the feet, he is the more proven striker at the UFC level, but Magomedov’s ability to mix his attacks together creates problems. More importantly, the grappling advantage appears significant. Baghdasaryan has struggled against strong ground fighters throughout his career, and Magomedov’s wrestling and submission game seem tailor-made to exploit that weakness. Long term, I suspect Magomedov will accumulate plenty of knockout victories as his career progresses because of his pressure and finishing instincts. In this particular matchup, though, the path of least resistance appears to be on the ground. Whether he gets there via a takedown, a knockdown, or simply forcing a scramble, I expect Magomedov to eventually put Baghdasaryan in a position where his grappling takes over.

Prediction: Murtazali Magomedov by first-round submission.

Featherweight: Christian Rodriguez (-155) vs Hyder Amil (+135)

The third consecutive featherweight bout on the card features a matchup between two established UFC veterans in Christian Rodriguez and Hyder Amil.

Christian “CeeRod” Rodriguez is a 28-year-old American freestyle fighter with a 12-4 professional record and a 5-4 mark inside the UFC. Rodriguez began his career with five consecutive victories before earning a shot on Dana White’s Contender Series, where he defeated Reyes Cortez Jr. by decision. However, after missing weight for the bout, he was not offered a UFC contract. Following one more win on the regional scene, Rodriguez eventually received the call to the promotion.

His UFC run has been an interesting one. After dropping his debut, Rodriguez rattled off four straight victories and quickly developed a reputation as a prospect killer. During that stretch, he handed losses to highly touted young fighters Raul Rosas Jr., Cameron Saaiman, and Isaac Dulgarian. The wins over Rosas and Saaiman were particularly impressive, though both performances were overshadowed by Rodriguez missing weight. That ultimately led him to move up to featherweight, where he defeated Dulgarian and has remained ever since. Despite those standout victories, Rodriguez has struggled to build consistent momentum. Since defeating Dulgarian, he has gone 1-3, with his lone win coming against Austin Bashi. Stylistically, Rodriguez is a well-rounded fighter capable of winning in multiple areas, but one of his greatest strengths has been his durability. Through 16 professional fights, he has never been knocked out.

Across the cage stands Hyder “The Hurricane” Amil, a 36-year-old American fighter with an 11-2 professional record. Amil earned his UFC contract on Dana White’s Contender Series with a unanimous decision victory over Emrah Sonmez while carrying a perfect 7-0 record. He continued that unbeaten run inside the UFC, winning his first three fights and improving to 11-0 overall. However, the momentum came to a halt over the last year. Amil has now dropped back-to-back fights, suffering a quick knockout loss to Jose Delgado before losing a unanimous decision to Jamall Emmers. While neither opponent is a bad fighter, neither is currently viewed as an elite contender, making those results somewhat concerning when evaluating Amil’s long-term ceiling.

For his career, Amil has earned six victories by knockout, one by submission, and four by decision. His aggressive style and willingness to engage make him an entertaining fighter, and at his best he has shown the ability to overwhelm opponents with pressure and volume.

It’s easy to understand why Rodriguez enters as the favorite. He’s younger, owns several impressive wins over respected prospects, and has proven he can compete with a variety of styles. The public and oddsmakers both seem to be siding with him. That said, I find myself leaning toward the underdog here. Amil’s last two performances were disappointing, but I still believe he possesses the higher offensive ceiling of the two fighters. Rodriguez likely has the advantage if he can consistently mix in takedowns and force grappling exchanges, but I’m not convinced he’ll pursue that game plan for three rounds. If this fight remains primarily a striking battle, I favor Amil’s pressure, aggression, and finishing instincts.

Rodriguez is notoriously durable, so I’m not expecting a finish. Instead, I see Amil winning enough exchanges on the feet to edge out a competitive decision.

Prediction: Hyder Amil by unanimous decision (29-28).

Co-Main Event

Light Heavyweight: Ion Cutelaba (+265) vs Navajo Stirling (-355)

Ion “The Hulk” Cutelaba is a 32-year-old Moldovan fighter with a background in sambo and one of the most action-oriented styles in the light heavyweight division. He enters this matchup with a professional record of 20-11-1 and a 9-10-1 mark inside the UFC. Before reaching the promotion, Cutelaba put together an impressive 11-1 record on the regional scene, along with one no contest. Since joining the UFC in 2016, he has spent much of his career facing high-level competition. Early losses to Jared Cannonier, Glover Teixeira, and Magomed Ankalaev twice came against fighters who either held or challenged for championship status, while he also owns a notable victory over current contender Khalil Rountree Jr.

However, Cutelaba’s hopes of becoming a serious title contender took a major hit when he suffered consecutive losses to Ryan Spann, Johnny Walker, and Kennedy Nzechukwu. Since that skid, he has settled into the role of a dangerous veteran gatekeeper, compiling a 4-2 record against unranked light heavyweights. His most impressive recent performance came in his last outing, where he handed highly regarded prospect Oumar Sy his first professional defeat. Historically, Cutelaba has relied on his aggression and power, earning the majority of his victories by knockout. Interestingly, his last two wins have come by submission, showcasing a more complete skill set than many fans often give him credit for. Regardless of the method, one thing remains true: Cutelaba rarely participates in boring fights.

Standing across from him is 28-year-old Kiwi kickboxer Navajo Stirling, one of the more intriguing prospects in the division. Stirling enters with a perfect 9-0 professional record and a 4-0 mark in the UFC. His rise has been remarkably quick. Stirling was only 4-0 as a professional when he earned a UFC contract by knocking out Phillip Latu on Dana White’s Contender Series. Since then, he has continued winning, steadily building momentum while maintaining his undefeated record.

Known primarily for his striking and knockout power, Stirling has recently shown a different side of his game. Three of his last four victories have gone to the judges’ scorecards, a trend that has raised some questions among observers. While consistently winning decisions is not inherently a negative, many expected him to finish lower-level competition more frequently given the reputation he built on the regional scene. As a result, there is still some uncertainty regarding exactly how high his ceiling is. What isn’t in question is his athleticism and potential. Stirling remains one of the division’s top prospects, and in a light heavyweight division that lacks young, emerging talent, a win over a veteran like Cutelaba could put him within striking distance of the rankings. One notable unknown, however, is his grappling. Stirling has never won by submission and has rarely been forced to showcase his ground game in meaningful moments.

This matchup feels likely to produce fireworks. Both men possess serious power, even if neither has been scoring knockouts at the same rate they did earlier in their careers. Cutelaba’s best path to victory may be through mixing in his wrestling and grappling, but historically he has never been shy about standing and trading punches, even when a more strategic approach might serve him better. If this turns into the striking battle many expect, I favor Stirling’s speed, technique, and youth. Cutelaba remains dangerous and is more than capable of turning the fight into chaos, but Stirling appears to be the cleaner and more disciplined striker. Eventually, I think that difference shows itself.

Prediction: Navajo Stirling by first-round knockout.

Main Event

Flyweight: #2 Manel Kape (-165) vs #5 Kyoji Horiguchi (+140)

Manel “StarBoy” Kape is a 32-year-old Portuguese fighter who previously represented Angola throughout much of his career. Kape began his professional journey on the Portuguese regional scene, compiling a 9-1 record before making the move to RIZIN, where he established himself as one of the world’s top flyweights. During his time in Japan, Kape went 6-3 and built an impressive résumé. He notably split a pair of fights with Kai Asakura and suffered losses only to elite competition, including his opponent tonight, Kyoji Horiguchi. His performances in RIZIN eventually earned him a UFC contract, though his start in the promotion was far from ideal. Kape lost his first two UFC bouts, but context matters. His debut came against Alexandre Pantoja, who has a legitimate claim as one of the two greatest flyweights in MMA history.

Since those early setbacks, Kape has emerged as one of the division’s premier contenders. He has gone 7-1 in his last eight fights, with his only loss coming against the undefeated Muhammad Mokaev. More recently, he has been on quite a run, scoring knockout victories over both Asu Almabayev and Brandon Royval while earning Performance of the Night bonuses in the process. Those wins launched him firmly into title contention, and many viewed him as one of the two most deserving candidates for the UFC’s most recent flyweight title shot. Instead, the promotion opted to give Tatsuro Taira the opportunity.

As a result, Kape finds himself in another high-stakes contender bout. If he can secure another marquee victory, he should be next in line for a championship opportunity—assuming Alexandre Pantoja is healthy and ready to defend the belt. Throughout his career, Kape has accumulated 14 knockout victories, five submissions, and three decision wins. He has never been knocked out and has only been finished twice, both by submission. While he possesses a capable ground game, Kape does his best work on the feet, where his speed, explosiveness, and striking creativity make him one of the division’s most dangerous fighters.

Standing across from him is one of the most accomplished flyweights of his generation. Kyoji “Karate Kid” Horiguchi is a 35-year-old Japanese veteran with a remarkable 36-5 professional record. Horiguchi began his career 11-1 before making his UFC debut in 2013. His first UFC stint was highly successful, as he posted a 7-1 record with his lone defeat coming against Demetrious Johnson, the other fighter commonly mentioned alongside Pantoja in discussions about the greatest flyweights of all time. Following that loss, Horiguchi departed the UFC and became one of the faces of RIZIN. During his second run in Japan, he compiled a dominant 14-1 record and captured championship gold, including a victory over Manel Kape.

When Horiguchi returned to the UFC, questions naturally surrounded how much of his prime remained at age 35. So far, he has answered those questions emphatically. In his return bout, he dominated accomplished wrestler Tagir Ulanbekov, beating him in the grappling exchanges before ultimately securing a submission victory. He followed that performance with a decision win over Amir Albazi, continuing his march back toward title contention. For his career, Horiguchi has amassed 15 knockout victories, six submissions, and 15 decision wins. While he built much of his reputation as a dynamic karate-based striker, the later stages of his career have showcased a more complete skill set. Recently, many of his victories have come through positional control, wrestling, and grappling dominance rather than pure striking exchanges.

This matchup is fascinating because it pits Kape’s explosive athleticism against Horiguchi’s experience and well-rounded skill set. I expect Horiguchi to have the advantage whenever the fight hits the mat, but Kape has developed excellent takedown defense and should be able to keep large portions of the fight standing. The question, then, becomes who wins the striking battle. Kape’s recent résumé is arguably stronger, and his knockout victories over Royval and Almabayev were impressive. Even so, I haven’t been quite as blown away by those performances as many others have. Horiguchi remains one of the smartest and most technically complete fighters in the division, and I trust his ability to win minutes, make adjustments, and control the pace of a five-round fight.

I expect a competitive contest with momentum swings throughout, but over 25 minutes I believe Horiguchi’s experience and versatility prove decisive.

Prediction: Kyoji Horiguchi by unanimous decision (48-47).

Conclusion

While this card may not feature a long list of household names, I still expect it to deliver from an entertainment standpoint. On paper, it has all the makings of a typical Apex card, but it’s loaded with intriguing prospects, stylistic matchups, and fighters looking to take the next step in their careers.

I have six of the twelve fights going to a decision, which might not sound particularly exciting at first glance. However, not all decisions are created equal. Many of these matchups project as competitive striking battles with high output and plenty of action, the kind of fights that can easily find themselves in the Fight of the Night conversation despite hearing the final bell.

Overall, I expect an entertaining night of fights with a healthy mix of prospects, veterans, and divisional implications. It may not be the strongest card of the year on paper, but it has more than enough potential to exceed expectations once the cage door closes.