The long holiday hiatus is finally over, and we have UFC back this weekend. This will be the first event on Paramount+ as part of the new UFC deal. As such, something that will take some getting used to is calling these events “Numbered Events” instead of Pay-Per-Views. Whatever you want to call it, UFC 324 is a very strong card, even if the main event leaves a lot to be desired as a “title fight”.
Early Prelims
Welterweight: Adam Fugitt (+310) vs Ty Miller (-420)
The first fight of the new era of UFC is a Contender Series alumni taking on a veteran he’s probably designed to beat.
Adam Fugitt is 10-5 as a professional, and 2-3 in the UFC. He’s 37 years old and represents the United States. His 3 losses aren’t bad, Michael Morales, Mike Malott, and Islam Dulatov are all in or near the top 15 at Welterweight. Granted, his wins over Yusaku Kinoshita and Josh Quinlan aren’t big resume builders either. To me Fugitt is clearly UFC level, but not much higher than that. I don’t consider him a can but he isn’t a high level fighter by any means, and doesn’t have much room to climb the rankings at age 37.
Ty Miller is 6-0 as a professional, and is making his UFC debut. Thriller earned his spot in the UFC on the latest season of the Contender Series. He was part of the brutal episode 1 where many fights were awful, which I believe led to Miller getting 1 of only 2 contracts. Had the other fights been up to par and each given out a contract, I’m not sure if Miller would have gotten his. 4 of Miller’s 6 wins have came by decision, very unusual for a UFC debutant. He does have 2 KOs on his record, as well as 3 KO’s before turning pro. Miller has never won by submission.
I don’t think Miller is a bad fighter, but I also don’t think he’s a particularly interesting fight and I don’t think he’s really a prospect at Welterweight. While Miller is surely still favored to win this fight, I don’t think the current odds are accurate. I’m picking the upset.
Prediction: Adam Fugitt by Decision
Bantamweight: Ricky Turcios (+165) vs Cameron Smotherman (-205)
No offense to these guys, but this is probably the fight that feels most out of place on this stacked card. Maybe I’m just sleeping on one or both of these guys, but every other fight has at least 1 fighter where I’m like “Yep, that makes sense for the first card of the year”. Because of that, I’m actually excited for this fight as it seems like the UFC believes one or both of these guys is someone to watch out for.
32 year old Turcios is 12-5 as a professional, 2-3 in the UFC. He won season 29 of The Ultimate Fighter but has lost 3 of his last 4 fights. His losses are #7 Aiemann Zahabi, Prospect Raul Rosas Jr. and Bernardo Sopaj, with his lone win coming against Kevin Natividad. His 2 UFC wins (including the TUF finale) both came by split decision. Turcios has mostly fought to decision in his career, but has been submitted once in the UFC.
Cameron Smotherman is 28 years old and is 12-6 as a professional. The Baby-Faced Killer has only won one out of 3 UFC fights though, a debut victory against Jake Hadley who is no longer in the UFC. His losses are Serhiy Sidey and Ricky Simón. All of his UFC fights have been by decision, although prior to the UFC he has quite a few KOs.
I don’t have a lot to say here other than the fight should go to a decision. This fight seems closer to a pick’em to me, but I’m going to trust the oddsmakers and go with Smotherman.
Prediction: Cameron Smotherman by Decision
Heavyweight: Josh Hokit (-250) vs Denzel Freeman (+200)
Josh Hokit is one of if not the best prospects in Heavyweight. The Incredible Hok is an outspoken trash talker who made a name for himself on the contender series last year and is 1-0 in the UFC with a win over Max Gimenis. He’s 7-0 as a professional and is actually a decent grappler for Heavyweight, he has never had a fight go the distance, with 5 first round finishes in 7 fights.
Denzel Freeman came into the UFC in November, avoiding the Contender Series. He faced off against fellow newcomer Marek Bujło in what was one of the worst heavyweight fights of the year, where he ultimately prevailed by decision. “Luke Fox”‘s best win is actually a win over Heavyweight prospect Steven Asplund while they were in LFA. He has 4 KOs, and 1 Submission victory with a 7-1 overall record.
Ultimately, the betting odds have this fight closer than public perception. I think part of this is that I don’t think Hokit is actually as good as he is hyped to be. With that being said, the Freeman performance was so bad last time that I’m picking Hokit.
Prediction: Josh Hokit by KO (Round 1)
Lightweight: Michael Johnson (+170) vs Alexander Hernandez (-210)
Michael “The Menace” Johnson is a long time veteran with a 24-19 overall record. The 39 year old is 16-15 in the UFC, most recently pulling out an upset victory over Daniel Zellhuber. He’s had his struggles on the ground, with just 2 submission wins and 9 submission defeats. Most recently though his fights have tended to go to decision.
Alexander “The Great Ape” Hernandez is 32 years old, 10-7 in the UFC and 18-8 overall. He enters the fight sporting a 4 fight win streak. He notably beat prospect Chase Hooper and followed it up by beating Diego Ferreira, an opponent Johnson lost to. He also has just 2 submissions, primarily fighting to decision. He is entering the fight with 2 straight KOs though.
Alexander Hernandez has the edge here. He’s a bit younger, has a longer win streak, and beat a fighter than Michael Johnson lost to. For some reason my gut tells me Michael Johnson gets it done, but I’m going to listen to my brain on this one.
Prediction: Alexander Hernandez by TKO (Round 3)
Prelims
Flyweight: #11 Alex Perez (+170) vs #13 Charles Johnson (-210)
Alex “The Decision” Perez has been known more for his lack of fighting than his actual fights recently. Since June 2020, he has 1 Win, 5 Losses, 1 Draw (in Grappling), and 12 cancelled fights. The 1 win came against Matheus Nicolau who was cut from the UFC. His losses have came mostly to top contenders, but 1 win in five and a half years is clearly someone on the decline at age 33. He is a pretty balanced fighter stylistically but while he traditionally does well on the ground, he’s been submitted twice recently.
Charles Johnson is somehow an up and coming fighter at age 39. “InnerG” holds one of the best recent resumes in the division with wins over one-loss fighters in prospect Lone’er Kavanagh and Champion Joshua Van. He’s 18-7, 7-5 in the UFC and has never been finished in his career, only losing by decision. He does have his fair share of losses outside the top 15, but is 5-1 in his last 6 fights. Both of his big upset wins came via TKO, but otherwise he’s been winning by decision.
I have to go with Charles Johnson at this point, he’s on a remarkable late career climb. Ultimately I think Perez doesn’t get knocked out, but loses handedly.
Prediction: #13 Charles Johnson by Decision
Light Heavyweight: #13 Nikita Krylov (+125) vs Modestas Bukauskas (-150)
Nikita “The Miner” Krylov is a Ukrainian fighter with a 30-11 overall record, 11-9 in the UFC. He’s lost his last 2 fights to #10 Bogdan Guskov and #9 Dominick Reyes, both by R1 TKO. He does hold a win over #9 Volkan Oezdemir recently. Most of his fights end in the first round, by submission or KO.
“The Baltic Gladiator” Modestas Bukauskas is looking like one of the best prospects in the division right now. It’s a weird thing to say since he’s 31 and 7-4 in the promotion. His first stint in the UFC didn’t go very well, although in hindsight his losses to Jimmy Crute, Michał Oleksiejczuk, and Khalil Rountree Jr. aren’t terrible. Since returning to the UFC, he’s 6-1 and looking to fight his way into the rankings. He also has a lot of first round finishes, most of them being KOs.
I think both fighters will go hard in the first round, but neither will be able to find the finish. I think Krylov is the more likely of the two to begin to gas out, though.
Prediction: Modestas Bukauskas by TKO (Round 2)
Middleweight: Ateba Gautier (-1000) vs Andrey Pulyaev (+625)
Ateba Gautier may be the best prospect in the UFC, although he has only fought cans so far. “The Silent Assassin” is just 23 years old and is 9-1. He went 1-1 in his first 2 fights, both by decision and has since won 7 straight, all by KO, 3 of which came in the UFC. His 2nd round KO in the contender series was the only finish of his career to come outside of the 1st round. Gautier looks the part of a future UFC champion, and while he hasn’t been tested much yet is quickly making a name for himself.
Andrey Pulyaev, unlike other Gautier opponents, is not a can. He’s 10-3 as a pro, and 1-1 in the UFC. His UFC loss was at the hands of Christian Leroy Duncan, who is one of the best unranked middleweights in the UFC. Notably. he has been knocked out once before on the regional scene. He wins most of his fights by TKO but went to decision in his Contender Series fight and the loss to CLD.
I like Pulyaev, but to be honest, I’m picking Gautier over most of the roster. Pulyaev isn’t known for having a bad chin, but it’s been cracked before and he’s probably never faced power quite like Ateba Gautier before.
Prediction: Ateba Gautier by KO (R1)
Bantamweight: #2 Umar Nurmagomedov (-1600) vs #6 Deiveson Figueiredo (+800)
What a fight for the featured prelim. Neither of these fighters are used to being on the prelims, and for good reason as they are both ranked in the top 6 of a competitive bantamweight division. With the new Paramount deal, it seems like the UFC is focusing heavier than ever on “interesting” fighters and that’s probably why this is a prelim fight.
Umar is a classic Dagestani wrestler, who more often than not, fights for decisions, not finishes. He’s 19-1 as a pro, with the loss coming to Bantamweight GOAT Merab Dvalishvili during his title reign. He’s 7-1 in the UFC, with his most notable wins being over Cory Sandhagen and Mario Bautista, which is not exactly the most impressive resume ever. With Umar though, he just dominates almost everyone he faces on the ground, although he does have 2 KO victories.
Deiveson Figueiredo aka “Deus da Guerra” is a former champion at Flyweight. He sits at 25-5-1, 14-5-1 in the UFC. Since moving to Bantamweight he has wins over Rob Font, Cody Garbrandt, Marlon Vera, and Montel Jackson, but loses to Corey Sandhagen and Champion Petr Yan. Earlier in his career he was a more balanced fighter with plenty of finishes, but recently he’s gone more to decision.
Simply put, Umar should dominate on the ground, and I don’t think Figueiredo has enough power on the feet to threaten to finish Umar. I also don’t think Figgy’s takedown defense will hold up to Umar’s Wrestling. I think Figueiredo is skilled enough to avoid being submitted, even though clearly Umar needs to start finishing fights to get in the UFC’s good graces.
Prediction: #2 Umar Nurmagomedov by Decision
Main Card
Featherweight: #6 Arnold Allen (+230) vs #10 Jean Silva (-300)
Arnold “Almighty” Allen is 32 years old and 11-2 in the UFC, 20-3 overall. His best win’s are Dan Hooker, Calvin Kattar, and Giga Chikadze. His recent losses to Movsar Evloev and Max Holloway, while high-level losses, really slowed his momentum in the division. He’s also been off for a year and a half since his last fight. He’s a relatively balanced fighter throughout his career, but has mostly gone to decision recently. He has never been finished.
“Lord” Jean Silva, one of the Fighting Nerds, is 16-3 and 5-1 in the UFC. He had never been finished and was a bit of a KO specialist before his last fight where Diego Lopes was able to knock him out. His best win is likely Bryce Mitchell, although a Contender Series win over Kevin Vallejos has aged quite well.
I went back and forth on who to pick in this fight. At betting odds I would go Allen because I think this fight is a lot closer than the oddsmakers have it. Ultimately, Allen’s layoff scares me just a bit too much, so I’m going with Silva.
Prediction: Jean Silva by KO (Round 2)
Women’s Flyweight: #2 Natália Silva (-440) vs #6 Rose Namajunas (+320)
Natália Silva is 19-5-1, but is 7-0 in the UFC. She started her career 3-4-1 on the regional scene, and later was 6-5-1, but has won 13 straight now. Her UFC debut was a win over now #7 Jasmine Jasudavicius, and she also holds wins over #4 Alexa Grasso and Jéssica Andrade. In the UFC she has 5 decision wins and 2 TKOs, but she got her fair share of submissions outside of the UFC. It’s really surprising to me that she hasn’t gotten a shot at the title, or even a #1 contender fight with Manon Fiorot. This fight was originally supposed to be Grasso vs Namajunas, though so hopefully accepting a fight short-notice garners her some favor.
Rose “Thug” Namajunas is a former champion who holds not 1 but 2 wins over Zhang Weili. Since then though she’s 3-3 with losses to Carla Esparza, Manon Fiorot and Erin Blanchfield while beating #8 Tracy Cortez, #10 Miranda Maverick and Amanda Ribas. All 6 of these fights went to a decision, as do a majority of her UFC fights.
Namajunas feels better than #6 in the division, but is clearly trending down. I consider Natália Silva the best challenger to Shevchenko’s throne and would pick her to beat anyone outside of the champion.
Prediction: #2 Natália Silva by Decision
Heavyweight: #5 Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-325) vs #8 Derrick Lewis (+250)
The top of the heavyweight division is so stale, that this might be one of the lowest ranked fights ever, that feels like a title eliminator. Cortes-Acosta is on the rise and has all but earned a title shot if he can beat Lewis. Lewis is a fan favorite on a winning streak and would be a perfect addition to the white house card. He literally got a phone call from Donald Trump after his last win.
“Salsa Boy” had an amazing 2025 despite a setback loss to Sergei Pavlovich. He beat Ryan Spann, Serghei Spivac, Ante Delija, and Shamil Gaziev all in 2025. He took fights on short notice, fought through eye pokes, stayed extremely active, and got 3 KOs and 2 performance bonuses. On his career he’s 9-2 in the UFC, 16-2 overall. He has a lot of decisions, but is most known for TKOs and has the power to end the fight quickly.
“The Black Beast” should need no introduction. He has the most knockouts in UFC history with 16 and counting, with a 20-10 record in the promotion. He’s hilarious on the mic, and a fan favorite, especially in the United States. At 40 years old, he’s probably on his last chance to fight for a title. He is the most powerful puncher in the UFC and can knock anyone out in a single punch, so he’s never truly out of a fight.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta might be the better fighter. He’s on a longer win streak, he’s younger, he’s beaten higher quality opponents recently. I don’t care about any of that. Derrick Lewis knocks him out with a big right hand and has the interview of the night afterwards.
Prediction: #8 Derrick Lewis by KO (Round 1)
Co-Main Event
Bantamweight: #3 Sean O’Malley (-210) vs #5 Song Yadong (+170)
“Suga” Sean O’Malley is 18-3 and 10-3 in the UFC. He lost early in his UFC career to Chito Vera, and recently lost twice to Merab Dvalishvili, losing the belt and failing to win it back. O’Malley is known for his striking, but it’s been a bit since he last had a highlight reel KO. He’s struggled on the ground but looked dominant on the feet in nearly all of his fights. O’Malley notably has a win over current champion Petr Yan.
Song “Kung Fu Kid” Yadong is 22-8-1, 11-3-1 in the UFC. He’s won most of his recent fights, losing to just Petr Yan and Cory Sandhagen. He’s done his job against lower level competition but consistently failed to make the jump by beating one of the elite in the division. Song is also a stand-up fighter, but goes to decision more often than O’Malley.
Both fighters have good chins, and neither seems particularly interested in taking the fight to the mat. I think it’s perfectly reasonable to have O’Malley as the favorite on the feet, but I find him a little overrated within public perception, so I’m going with the upset.
Prediction: #5 Song Yadong by Decision
Main Event
Lightweight: #4 Justin Gaethje (+190) vs #5 Paddy Pimblett (-235)
First I need to talk about the controversy behind this fight. Champion Ilia Topuria has not vacated, as some expected, leaving us in a weird limbo and an interim belt. #1 contender Arman Tsarukyan was skipped over for this fight, despite clearly being the most deserving and coming off a win. Fan favorites #2 Charles Oliveira & #3 Max Holloway also were skipped over, presumably because they’ve both recently lost to Ilia. Those 2 will instead fight for the BMF belt later. So now we end up in a situation where #4 and #5 are fighting for an interim belt, and could be asked to even defend that belt depending on Ilia’s eventual return. I think it’s an unfortunate situation, and not a good or fair choice by the UFC for an interim title fight, but man it should make a great main event.
Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje really is the human highlight reel and is also beloved by many fans. He’s 26-5 and 9-5 in the UFC. The problem is he’s on just a 1 fight winning streak, against Rafael Fiziev. He’s recently lost to Oliveira and Holloway, both justifiably ranked ahead of Gaethje. Outside of 2 Fiziev wins, he has wins over Poirier, Chandler, Ferguson, Cerrone, and Edson Barboza, none over the new age of Lightweight. He ultimately seems to be somewhat on the decline, and shouldn’t really be in a title fight. He’s been submitted a few times, and seems to do better in earlier rounds, but has plenty of experience in 5 round fights.
Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett is an up and comer who is 7-0 in the UFC, 23-3 overall. Like Gaethje, he has mostly fought past their prime fighters recently, in his case, Michael Chandler, King Green, Tony Ferguson, and Jared Gordon. He’s climbed a lot in the rankings since his last fight even, due to growing hype and other results in the division. He’s being pushed heavily due to his beef with Ilia Topuria dating back years. The UFC would love the opportunity to put that fight on. Paddy is a grappler first and foremost but has worked at becoming a more well rounded fighter. Against Gaethje though, I think the grappling is the way to go.
I think Paddy wears him out on the ground and eventually gets the submission, becoming interim champion and setting up a fight with Ilia Topuria.
Prediction: #5 Paddy Pimblett by Submission (Round 2)
