UFC 329 marks the long-awaited return of Conor McGregor. Unlike many previous McGregor cards, where the UFC knew fans would tune in regardless, this event is actually stacked from top to bottom. There are two former champions on the prelims, plenty of top prospects throughout the card, and a main card loaded with exciting ranked matchups. Even the lone unranked fight on the main card may end up being the most entertaining bout. The result is a thrilling event that should have both longtime fans and newcomers on the edge of their seats.
Early Prelims
Flyweight: Cody Durden (+215) vs Alessandro Costa (-260)
The first matchup of the night is a battle between two veteran flyweights. Cody Durden is a 34-year-old American with a 7-8-1 UFC record. He’s lost six of his last eight fights but is coming off a win over Jafel Filho. Standing across from him is 29-year-old Brazilian Alessandro Costa, who is 4-3 in the UFC and has won three of his last four. His losses to Amir Albazi and Steve Erceg have also aged quite well. As I see it, Costa is simply the more talented fighter, with more power on the feet and the better ground game if the fight hits the mat. I think Costa takes the first round before finding a finish in the second.
Prediction: Alessandro Costa def. Cody Durden via TKO in the 2nd round
Middleweight: Ryan Gandra (-135) vs Zach Reese (+110)
Ryan Gandra is a 30-year-old Brazilian and a recent DWCS alum. While he isn’t viewed as a highly regarded prospect by most, I was very impressed with his Contender Series performance. He won his UFC debut in under a minute, although Jose Medina wasn’t exactly the toughest test. Across from him is Zach Reese, a 31-year-old American who is 4-3 in the UFC and most recently lost to Michel Pereira. Reese is the definition of a solid mid-tier veteran, making him a good measuring stick for a prospect like Gandra. I understand why the odds are so close, in fact, I’m a little surprised Reese isn’t the favorite. With that said, I think Gandra is the real deal and has borderline top-15 potential. I think he lands a big shot early before eventually finding the finish.
Prediction: Ryan Gandra def. Zach Reese via KO in the 1st round
Bantamweight: Farid Basharat (-670) vs John Garza (+430)
The hyped matchup between undefeated Farid Basharat and prospect killer Ethyn Ewing was one of the fan-favorite fights on this card. Unfortunately, an injury forced Ewing to withdraw, with UFC newcomer John Garza stepping in on short notice. Basharat remains undefeated as a professional and has already picked up six UFC wins. Despite his success, he has yet to receive a ranked opportunity, likely due to his decision-heavy fighting style. His brother Javid Basharat was also recently cut from the UFC despite coming off a win, making it feel like the promotion has been hesitant to fully invest in the Basharat brothers. Ultimately, it felt like the UFC was hoping Ewing would be the test that Basharat needed, but instead he gets another lower-level matchup. Garza is a 6-1 prospect who was most recently competing in Fury FC. He’s just 23 years old, but his résumé looks more like a Contender Series fighter than someone who would typically receive a UFC contract outright. I’d love to see Garza prove me wrong, but I think Basharat is simply too skilled and too experienced for him at this stage. I expect Basharat to win the first round before taking the fight to the mat and securing a submission in the second.
Prediction: Farid Basharat def. John Garza via Submission in the 2nd round
Middleweight: Damian Pinas (-220) vs César Almeida (+185)
Damian Pinas is another Contender Series prospect looking to make a name for himself in the middleweight division. The 24-year-old from Aruba is 1-0 in the UFC with a win over Wes Schultz and owns a 9-1 professional record. His lone loss came by disqualification after an illegal kick, meaning he has never truly been beaten inside the cage. Standing across from him is César Almeida, a 37-year-old former kickboxer who holds a 7-2 MMA record. Almeida has looked solid since joining the UFC, but he’s coming off a loss to fellow middleweight prospect Cezary Oleksiejczuk. This matchup is less about the veteran gatekeeper in Almeida and more about finding out just how good Damian Pinas really is. I’m a fan of Pinas’ long-term potential, though I’m probably a little lower on his current ability than most. Even with that in mind, I still think he gets the job done. I believe his power will be too much for Almeida, leading to a first-round knockout.
Prediction: Damian Pinas def. César Almeida via TKO in the 1st round
Women’s Flyweight: #8 Tracy Cortez (-105) vs #12 Wang Cong (-115)
With the first ranked fight of the night comes the first rankings discussion. Tracy Cortez is ranked #8 in both the Media and Meta Rankings, while Wang Cong sits at #10 in the Meta Rankings. For now, I’m sticking with the Media Rankings, though it seems the UFC is moving toward using the Meta Rankings as its primary system. If that becomes the standard, I’ll make the switch as well. As a result, I’m listing Wang Cong at #12 for this preview. Cortez is an American fighter with a 12-3 professional record and is 6-2 in the UFC. Her only losses have come against Rose Namajunas and Erin Blanchfield. At this stage of her career, she’s established herself as a gatekeeper—consistently beating the fighters below her while struggling to break into the division’s elite. Wang is a rising Chinese contender who transitioned from kickboxing to MMA. She notably owns a kickboxing victory over Valentina Shevchenko and has compiled a 9-1 MMA record. Her lone loss came against Gabi Fernandes, exposing some grappling deficiencies, but she looked much improved in that area during her most recent win over Eduarda Moura. Cortez is the more proven fighter, but Wang has all the tools to continue climbing the rankings. I went back and forth on this one, but I ultimately sided with Cortez. I trust her experience and well-rounded skill set to be the difference in a very competitive fight.
Prediction: Tracy Cortez def. Wang Cong via unanimous decision (29-28)
Prelims
Featherweight: Kai Kamaka III (+240) vs Luke Riley (-300)
The featured prelim kicks off with another one of the UFC’s top prospects, Luke Riley. The undefeated Englishman, who trains alongside Paddy Pimblett, is 2-0 in the UFC with wins over Bogdan Grad and Michael Aswell. Across from him is Kai Kamaka, a former UFC fighter who earned his way back to the promotion with a lightweight win over Dakota Hope. Seeing the Hawaiian on a Max Holloway card isn’t much of a surprise, but seeing him matched up with Riley certainly is. This feels like a slight step down in competition for Riley after a fairly challenging start to his UFC career. I think he makes quick work of Kamaka and adds another knockout to his résumé.
Prediction: Luke Riley def. Kai Kamaka III via TKO in the 1st round
Bantamweight: Adrian Yañez (-450) vs Cody Garbrandt (+330)
It’s a former champion versus a former top prospect on the prelims. Cody Garbrandt looked phenomenal in his title-winning performance against Dominick Cruz, but has gone just 4-7 since. Most of those losses have come against high-level, ranked opponents, though his wins haven’t been especially impressive either. His most recent victory over Long Xiao is a solid win, but it doesn’t erase the struggles he’s had over the past several years. Adrian Yanez began his UFC career with five straight wins and five consecutive performance bonuses but has gone 1-3-1 since. Both fighters have hit rough patches recently, but I still think Yanez is the better overall fighter. I don’t think the odds should be as wide as they are, but I’m still picking Yanez. I think Garbrandt takes the first round before Yanez rallies to find the finish.
Prediction: Adrian Yañez def. Cody Garbrandt via TKO in the 2nd round
Heavyweight: Gable Steveson (-3000) vs Elisha Ellison (+1200)
One of the most hyped newcomers in recent memory, Gable Steveson finally makes his long-awaited UFC debut. He’s just 3-0 as a professional and has yet to see a second round in his MMA career. Steveson is a dominant wrestler and a blue-chip prospect entering a heavyweight division that desperately needs an influx of talent. Standing across from him is Elisha Ellison, who may be the weakest heavyweight on the UFC roster. He made his debut against Brando Peričić in a fight I actually picked him to win, but Ellison was completely outmatched. He hasn’t fought since, while Peričić has worked his way into the top 15. A -3000 betting line is almost unheard of for a debuting fighter with only three professional bouts, but it’s hard to pick against Steveson here.
Prediction: Gable Steveson def. Elisha Ellison via KO in the 1st round
Light Heavyweight: Robert Whittaker (-145) vs #12 Nikita Krylov (+125)
Former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker is making the move up to light heavyweight. Ranked #10 at middleweight, but notably unranked in the Meta Rankings, Whittaker has fallen quite a bit since his championship days. That said, his losses since dropping the belt have come against Dricus Du Plessis, Khamzat Chimaev, and Reinier de Ridder, which is about as tough a stretch of opponents as you can face. Standing across from him is Nikita Krylov, a 31-11 Ukrainian who is 12-9 in the UFC. Krylov has settled into the role of a top-15 gatekeeper, though he’s also unranked in the Meta Rankings. He defeated Modestas Bukauskas in his most recent outing but lost to Bogdan Guskov and Dominick Reyes before that. Moving up a weight class is never easy, especially for a naturally smaller fighter like Whittaker. Krylov will have a three-inch height advantage and a four-inch reach advantage, but I still think Whittaker is the more talented fighter. I expect him to overcome the size difference and earn the victory.
Prediction: Robert Whittaker def. Nikita Krylov via TKO in the 2nd round
Main Card
Lightweight: King Green (+120) vs Terrance McKinney (-140)
This bout may not have the biggest names of the main card, but it has the potential to be one of the most entertaining fights of the night. Terrance McKinney might be the most dangerous fighter in the UFC for about 60 seconds, as he always seems to deliver a highlight-reel knockout—whether he’s the one landing it or the one on the receiving end. He’s 18-8 as a professional and 8-5 in the UFC, has never seen the judges’ scorecards, and has won 17 of his 18 professional victories in the first round.
Standing across from him is scrappy veteran striker King Green (formerly Bobby Green). Green owns a 35-17-1 professional record and is 16-12-1 in the UFC. At 39 years old, his career is likely nearing its final stages, but he’s still one of the most entertaining volume strikers in the sport and, in my opinion, one of the better unranked lightweights in the division. He’s gone 6-3 in his last nine fights, with losses to Jalin Turner, Paddy Pimblett, and Mauricio Ruffy. Those aren’t bad losses, and he’s currently riding a three-fight win streak.
I’m very high on King Green, but even I was surprised to see him enter this fight as the underdog. McKinney’s defense has always been a major concern, and I think Green’s volume and experience will be the difference. Either way, I expect this one to end early, with a first-round finish likely on the way.
Prediction: King Green def. Terrance McKinney via KO in the 1st round
Flyweight: #4 Brandon Royval (+185) vs #6 Lone’er Kavanagh (-235)
While the opening bout of the main card should be a lot of fun, the rest of the card is stacked with high-level ranked matchups. This one features longtime flyweight contender Brandon Royval against fast-rising prospect Lone’er Kavanagh. Royval spent years near the top of the flyweight division, defeating most of the contenders but always falling just short of champion Alexandre Pantoja. That changed when Joshua Van accepted a short-notice opportunity and made the most of it, upsetting Royval in a Fight of the Year contender. Royval has since dropped another bout to top contender Manel Kape and now finds himself on a two-fight losing streak.
Kavanagh is a rapidly rising Contender Series graduate who started his UFC career 2-0 before suffering his first promotional loss to Charles Johnson. Despite that setback, the UFC immediately gave him an even bigger test against Brandon Moreno, and Kavanagh responded with the biggest win of his career, launching himself into the rankings. He’s primarily a striker with respectable knockout power, but like many flyweights, his fights are more often high-paced three-round battles than early finishes.
I’m still not convinced Royval is washed, his losses to Van and Kape have both aged well, but Kavanagh looks like exactly the kind of young, surging contender capable of taking his place near the top of the division. At the current odds, I’d be tempted to take Royval from a betting perspective, but for a straight prediction, I’m picking Kavanagh. I think he wins all three rounds and earns a unanimous decision.
Prediction: #6 Lone’er Kavanagh def. #4 Brandon Royval via Unanimous Decision (30-27)
Bantamweight: #4 Cory Sandhagen (-150) vs #7 Mario Bautista (+130)
The top of the bantamweight division is relatively clear right now. Petr Yan is the champion, while Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley have both earned the next title shot in different ways. Umar Nurmagomedov may not be a fan favorite, but he’s clearly a level above the rest of the division and likely won’t be getting a title shot, or even a fight with O’Malley, anytime soon. Beyond those four, the next tier consists of Cory Sandhagen, Mario Bautista, and perhaps Song Yadong. Without waiting on the title picture or facing Umar, this is about the best matchup either Sandhagen or Bautista could take.
Cory Sandhagen has become something of a gatekeeper to the division’s elite. He’s consistently fallen just short of breaking into the top three contenders, though he put together a respectable performance in his recent title fight against Merab. Sandhagen also owns wins over both Mario Bautista and Song Yadong, while his recent losses have come against Umar Nurmagomedov, Petr Yan, and Merab Dvalishvili. He’s primarily a technical striker who wins with volume and movement over three rounds, but he’s also more than capable of holding his own on the mat.
Bautista is an American with a 17-3 professional record and an 11-3 mark in the UFC. He lost his promotional debut to Sandhagen and started just 2-2 in the organization. Since then, however, he’s gone on an eight-fight winning streak to earn a showdown with Umar Nurmagomedov. While he ultimately lost a competitive decision, I thought he performed well, and he followed it up by submitting Vinicius Oliveira. Bautista is an excellent volume striker, but he’s also a dangerous grappler, especially once he hurts opponents on the feet.
Sandhagen won their first meeting, but considering it was Bautista’s UFC debut, I’m not putting much weight on that result. I also think Bautista looked better against Umar than Sandhagen did against Merab, even if those aren’t perfect comparisons. Bautista is one of my favorite fighters in the division, and I think he has what it takes to keep climbing the rankings. I expect Sandhagen to win a round and defend well enough to hear the final bell, but I have Bautista taking the decision.
Prediction: #7 Mario Bautista def. #4 Cory Sandhagen by Unanimous Decision (29-28)
Co-Main Event
Lightweight: #5 Benoît Saint Denis (-145) vs #6 Paddy Pimblett (+115)
I really don’t know what to think about this fight. It’s an interesting stylistic matchup between two fighters who it’s hard to gauge their skill level at this point. Benoit Saint Denis is a dangerous power puncher who’s 9-3 in the UFC. He lost to Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano in 2024, but has won his last 4 fights, including wins over Mauricio Ruffy and Dan Hooker. He’s quickly jumped from the bottom of the top 15 to the top and a win against Pimblett would set him up nicely to continue climbing.
Paddy Pimblett is a hyped up English fighter who was heavily pushed by the UFC. His 7 fight UFC win streak included mostly veterans past their prime, although the King Green win has aged better than expected. He was rated too highly by the UFC and ultimately was given an interim title fight with Justin Gaethje that neither of them really deserved at the time. Following the loss to Gaethje, my view on Pimblett was that he was unproven and still ranked far to highly, closer to Dan Hooker than the top of the division. After Gaethje’s huge title-winning upset over Ilia Topuria though, the loss on Pimblett’s record looks a lot less damaging. As such, Pimblett remains unproven and hard to figure out. He’s primarily a wrestler and submission threat but he also likes to stand and fight even if that isn’t his biggest strength.
BSD’s ground game is very unproven but he’s shown glimpses of solid takedown defense at the very least. Pimblett as a whole is unproven but should at least have the advantage if he can get the fight to the ground. I think the most likely outcome is a Saint Denis knockout, but this is one where I’m just taking the upset. I know I kinda trashed Paddy in his review, but I really enjoy him as a fighter and personality, and even though he’s unproven I believe he’s capable of exploiting BSD’s weakness and winning the fight, even if BSD may be the techincally better fighter.
Prediction: #6 Paddy Pimblett def. #5 Benoît Saint Denis by Submission in the 2nd round
Main Event
Welterweight: Conor McGregor (+180) vs Max Holloway (-215)
An interesting note on this main event, neither fighter is ranked at Welterweight. Max Holloway is #4 at lightweight, and Conor McGregor is obviously unranked after his long layoff. “The Notorius” Conor McGregor was the biggest draw in the UFC for quite some time and would easily appear on the promotion’s “Mount Rushmore” even if he isn’t necessarily considered on most fans’ GOAT lists. Conor was a multi-division champion but the losses piled up at the end of his UFC tenure. He lost to Nate Diaz, but avenged that loss in his next fight, and then after beating Eddie Alvarez he would go 1-3 and retire. He lost to Khabib, beat Donald Cerrone and then lost twice to Dustin Poirier. His last win was in 2020, and before that it was 2016. Fans want to remember the dominant McGregor of the past, but he’s won just 1 fight in the last nine and a half years, and hasn’t exactly spent the time off in the training gym. McGregor was also supposed to return in 2024 for the coaches fight after The Ultimate Fighter against Michael Chandler but ultimately pulled out of that fight due to injury.
On the other side is Max “Blessed” Holloway is 23-9 in the UFC, winning 6 fights since McGregor’s last win. He had a somewhat shaky start to his UFC career, but 2 of those losses were to Poirier and a 2013 loss to Conor McGregor. After that loss, Holloway won 13 straight en route to becoming the Featherweight Champion and defending the belt multiple times. He lost a fight for the Interim Lightweight bout to Poirier and eventually lost the Featherweight belt to Alexander Volkanovski before eventually moving up to Lightweight. Holloway hasn’t been a true contender at Lightweight, primarily having big name fights for the BMF belt, most notably with Gaethje. Poirier and Oliveira. The Oliveira loss cost him his BMF belt, but the UFC still seems more interested in giving him fun headliner fights as opposed to making him a true contender for a belt. Holloway is one of the best volume boxers on the roster, and is well known for his chin, having never been knocked out until fighting Ilia Topuria and suffering his lone career loss by knockout.
This is going to be a fun fight no matter how it goes. Obviously, there’s a chance McGregor is just outmatched but he should still be able to create a fun scrap. In the event McGregor has somehow returned to prime form, then this will be a fight for the ages. Unfortunately, that just seems so unlikely at this point. I know Holloway is moving up a weight class, but he’s actually 2 inches taller than Conor even though he does still have the reach disadvantage. Ultimately I just couldn’t see any way other than picking Holloway. It could go a number of different ways, but I went with TKO in the 3rd round after Conor gasses out.
Prediction: Max Holloway def. Conor McGregor via TKO in the 3rd Round
