A card that has been marred by injuries and cancelled fights, UFC Abu Dhabi is still an interesting enough card, even if the star power is lacking. There a lot of top prospects, even some of the most high profile, on the card, as well as some undefeated promotional newcomers. The main event took a hit with the Rountree injury, but Guskov is closest thing light heavyweight has to a ranked prospect and a win over Ankalaev would inject some intrigue into a relatively weak division.

Bantamweight: Abdul Hussein (-400) vs Cody Gibson (+300)

Abdul Hussein went unselected on this season of The Ultimate Fighter but quickly got booked for a UFC debut anyways. Rodrigo Vera, who also went undrafted already won his UFC debut and many people expect Hussein to do the same. Born in Lebanon, Abdul Hussein trains in Finland and fights under the Finnish flag. He’s 28 years old and has a 15-2 professional record. One of those two losses came against Muhammad Mokaev as well. He has 9 submission victories and 5 knockouts, with just 1 win by decision.

Cody “The Renegade” Gibson is a 38 year old American fighter with a 21-12 professional record. He went 1-3 in the UFC back in 2015, but made it back to the UFC after making The Ultimate Fighter 31 finals. He lost a fight of the night to Brad Katona, but stuck in the UFC, going 2-3 since. Both of wins came against older fighters with more UFC losses than wins, he has not yet proven to me that he can win a fight against a younger fighter like Hussein, even if I don’t consider him a prospect at this moment.

To be clear, I am not as high on Hussein as consensus. I was prepared to pick the upset when it was Hussein vs Muin Gafurov, but with Gafurov out and Cody Gibson coming in as a late replacement, I’m taking Abdul Hussein. Gibson has only been knocked out once in his MMA career, but that was his most recent fight. If there is a finish, I expect it to be a submission in the later rounds, but I think Gibson wins the first round and survives the fight, but doesn’t do enough to get the win.

Prediction: Abdul Hussein def. Cody Gibson by Unanimous Decision (29-28)

Lightweight: Nurullo Aliev (-150) vs Mike Davis (+130)

Nurullo “The Tajik Eagle” Aliev is a 25 year old undefeated prospect out of Tajikistan. He has 2 career knockouts, 1 of which coming on the Contender Series, but his other 9 wins have all came by decision. Aliev’s resume is pretty low level, and he’s not getting finishes but undefeated is still undefeated.

Mike “Beast Boy” Davis is a 33 year old American fighter with a 12-3 professional record. He lost on the contender series to Sodiq Yusuff, and lost his UFC debut to Gilbert Burns. He went on a 4-0 run after that, with the best win probably being Mason Jones, before losing to Farès Ziam. He beat Mitch Ramirez in his last fight. Davis was mostly a knockout fighter but has just 2 knockouts in 5 UFC wins.

A lot of people hate on Aliev for his style, but he’s a good fighter. Davis is more proven but I think Aliev is the higher level fighter. It’s impossible to pick anything but a decision for Aliev if he’s going to win.

Prediction: Nurullo Aliev def. Mike Davis by Unanimous Decision (30-27)

Light Heavyweight: Brendson Ribeiro (+425) vs Magomed Tuchalov (-600)

Brendson “The Gorilla” Ribeiro is a 29 year old Brazilian fighter. Ribeiro is 17-10 as a professional and 2-5 in the UFC. He’s a very low level fighter, but he’s athletic enough to beat some of the blob light heavyweights. Ribeiro’s been finished in his last 3 fights.

Magomed “Tiger” Tuchalov is an undefeated 26 year old fighter from the UAE. He’s 6-0 with 5 knockouts and a submission, he’s never seen a 3rd round in his MMA career. He’s fought 5 of his 6 career fights in UAE Warriors.

Ribeiro is the type of guy who could fraud check one of these local undefeated fighters, but UAE Warriors is a strong promotion. I’m taking Tuchalov to get it done and get it done quick.

Prediction: Magomed Tuchalov def. Brendson Ribeiro by KO in the first round

Lightweight: Ismael Bonfim (+165) vs Axel Sola (-200)

Ismael Bonfim, brother of top contender Gabriel Bonfim, is a 30 year old Brazilian fighter with a 20-6 professional record. He’s 2-3 in the UFC, starting his career with a win, a loss to top contender Benoit Saint-Denis, and another win,, but has now lost 2 straight. He missed weight by 4.5 pounds and got a fight cancelled earlier in his UFC run and missed by 6 pounds and still lost his last fight.

Axel Sola is a 28 year old French fighter with an 11-1-1 record. He’s 1-1 in the UFC but both fights have been bangers. He got a round 3 knockout of Rhys McKee in his UFC debut and then lost a fight of the night to Mason Jones his last time out. I don’t consider Sola a prospect after his last loss but he’s still a talented fighter in the middle of this weight class.

I think Sola wins all 3 rounds if it goes 3 rounds, but I ultimately think Sola finds the finish.

Prediction: Axel Sola def. Ismael Bonfim by TKO in the second round

Welterweight: Santiago Ponzinibbio (+325) vs Sam Patterson (-425)

Santiago “Argentine Dagger” Ponzinibbio is a veteran 39 year old Brazilian fighter. He carries a 30-9 professional record and is 12-8 in the UFC. He’s just 3-6 in his last 9 fights and is headed towards retirement. With that said 3 of those losses came via split decision, and many of the others were close as well. He was a flashy striker but he hasn’t been able to land enough of those strikes as of late.

Sam Patterson is a 30 year old British fighter with a 14-3-1 record, who is 4-2 in the UFC. He lost his debut to Yanal Ashmouz, beat 4 lower level fighters in the 1st round, and then lost his most recent fight against MVP, one of the most boring fights of the year. People seem to place Sam Patterson as someone just outside the top 15, justifying the matchmaking with MVP, but I just don’t see it. I’m much lower on Sam Patterson in general.

I think Patterson dominates the first round but doesn’t find the finish, then after a close round 2, Ponzinibbio finds the crazy shot to pull off the massive upset. The betting odds don’t seem that massive, but just 5% of people are picking Ponzinibbio on tapology, and I’m one of them.

Prediction: Santiago Ponzinibbio def. Sam Patterson by TKO in the third round

Light Heavyweight: Dustin Jacoby (-220) vs Muhammad Said (+185)

Dustin “The Hanyak” Jacoby has been a gatekeeper at Light Heavyweight division for years. The 38 year old American is 22-9-1 and is 10-6-1 in the UFC. He went on a strong run to start his career, but lost to current #5 Khalil Rountree Jr., current #8 Azamat Murzakanov, current #14 in the meta rankings Alonzo Menifield, and current #11 Dominick Reyes. In the meantime, he’s beat Kennedy Nzechukwu, rising Heavyweight Vitor Petrino, Bruno Lopes, and Julius Walker. He’s on a 3 fight win streak and has not lost outside the rankings. He is also currently ranked #11 in the meta rankings, but unranked by the media.

Muhammad “Kubik” Said is a 30 year old undefeated fighter from the UAE. He has 6 knockout wins, 2 submission wins and 1 decision in his professional career and is making his UFC debut on this card. He does hold an amateur loss to Rizvan Kuniev, which is his only known loss at any level. There’s nothing in his record to make me not trust him, but I just don’t. He reminds me too much of the undefeated Baku fighters who did not live up to the hype.

Against a can, I’d pick Muhammad Said, but I rate Dustin Jacoby and this seems like too big of a step up for Said’s UFC debut. I think Jacoby wins a close round 1 and ends the fight early in round 2.

Prediction: Dustin Jacoby def. Muhammad Said by TKO in the second round

Heavyweight: #13 Valter Walker (-280) vs Thomas Petersen (+230)

Valter Walker is a 28 year old Brazilian fighter with a 15-1 professional record. He lost his UFC debut to Łukasz Brzeski, but has won 4 straight fights all via Heel Hook. Walker’s 4 wins are all pretty low level, with Kennedy Nzechukwu being the biggest win, but he’s due to for step up into the rankings. This fight is not that step up into the rankings though, as Petersen is another unranked gatekeeper. Prior to the UFC he had 6 knockouts and 4 decision victories, with just 1 submission, so I don’t think he’s a 1 trick pony with the heel hook, but at this point I just want to see how long this streak can go.

Thomas “The Train” Petersen is a 31 year old American fighter with a 11-4 record. He had a nice run in the LFA, only losing to Waldo Cortes-Acosta. He won on the Contender Series but has alternated wins and losses in the UFC going 3-3. He has 7 career knockouts, 1 submission, and 3 decision victories. He’s been knocked out 3 times, with 1 loss coming via decision. I actually rate Petersen pretty highly compared to most, valuing the wins over Mohammed Usman and Guilherme Pat.

I’m not sure how good Walker actually is on the ground outside of the heel hook, Petersen is a good wrestler and could have an advantage on the ground. Walker has also talked about going for a knockout and ending the heel hook streak. Ultimately though, this is a Valter Walker fight so there’s only one thing I can predict.

Prediction: #13 Valter Walker def. Thomas Petersen by Submission in the first round (Heel Hook)

Main Card

Middleweight: Abubakar Vagaev (-265) vs Saygid Izagakhmaev (+200)

Abubakar Vagaev is a 33 year old Russian fighter with a 24-4 record. He’s making his UFC debut, which was originally supposed to be against fellow debutant Magomedrasul Gasanov but now is against Izagakhmaev. Vagaev has faced a lot of fighters with good record on the regional scene, but no huge wins. 19 of his 24 wins have came via decision as well, including his last 10 wins. His last 3 losses have all been via knockout.

Saygid Izagakhmaev is a 31 year old Russian, Dagestani fighter with a 22-3 record. He lost his UFC debut to Nicolas Dalby and didn’t look very good in the process. His most recent loss on the regional scene is to Carlston Harris, another UFC fighter. He has 4 wins by knockout and 12 by submission.

I think Saygid Izagakhmaev is the better fighter on paper actually, but he looked so bad in his debut, and Vagaev has never been submitted. I really thought about the upset here, but I played it safe and went with Abubakar Vagaev.

Prediction: Abubakar Vagaev def. Saygid Izagakhmaev by Unanimous Decision (29-28)

Heavyweight: #8 Rizvan Kuniev (-280) vs #11 Tyrell Fortune (+230)

Rizvan Kuniev is a 34 year old Russian, Dagestani Fighter. He has a 14-3-1 record, and is 1-1 in the UFC. He started 2-2-1 on the regional scene, but then won 12 straight, including 2 on the contender series. One of those wins was overturned due to a failed drug test for steroids. He lost his UFC debut to Curtis Blaydes, but fought a close fight against the now #7 ranked Blaydes. He then beat Jailton Almeida, even if some saw it as a robbery, to earn his spot in the rankings. He has 6 knockouts, 3 submissions, and 4 decision wins and has never been finished himself.

Tyrell Fortune is a 36 year old American fighter with a 18-3 record. He went 12-2 with 2 no contests in Bellator and 1-1 in the PFL before joining the UFC. In the UFC, he’s just 1-0, beating Marcin Tybura and taking his ranking. He was one of these fighters coming from a bigger promotion who gets a ranked opportunity right away, but I don’t value his win over Tybura that highly. There’s a reason he’s unranked in the Meta rankings that don’t take his pre-UFC accomplishments into account. He has 11 knockouts and just 1 win by submission.

I think Kuniev is just a step above where Fortune has proven to be at this point. It’s hard to know how much to take the steroids into account, but what I’ve seen from Kuniev is a good fighter. I think he has a big advantage on the ground, but might be able to hold his own on the feet as well. I don’t think he finds the finish, but I do think he finds the victory.

Prediction: #8 Rizvan Kuniev def. #11 Tyrell Fortune by Unanimous Decision (30-27)

Lightweight: Magomed Zaynukov (-335) vs Damian Rzepecki (+270)

Maybe the most hyped name on the card, John Pork, aka Magomed “Wild Chanco” Zaynukov is a 31 year old Russian Dagestani fighter. He has a Muay Thai background and has 5 career knockouts but has gone to decision in his last 3 fights. He’s a perfect 8-0 and is now making his UFC debut. He trains with Khabib Nurmagomedov and Islam Makhachev, so he is most likely an improved wrestler but has not relied on that thus far in his MMA career.

Zaynukov isn’t being thrown a can though, his opponent is fellow UFC debutant Damian Rzepecki. “The Butcher” is a 24 year old Polish fighter who sits at an undefeated 10-0. He has 4 wins by knockout, 5 by submission, and 1 by decision, but he hasn’t always fought the highest level guys on the regional scene. The best record one of his opponents has had is 12-2. He also went to his first decision in his most recent fight, against 13-7 Corneliu Rotaru Lascar.

Rzepecki’s resume just doesn’t stand up to one of the biggest prospects debuting in the UFC this season. Zaynukov got just as much fanfare on the last Islam card as reigning champion Islam Makhachev, and Chanco wasn’t even fighting on that card. This fight isn’t a gimme for Zaynukov, but there’s a reason he’s as big of a favorite as he is.

Prediction: Magomed Zaynukov def. Damian Rzepecki by Unanimous Decision (30-27)

Welterweight: Islam Dulatov (-750) vs Wellington Turman (+500)

Islam “The Ripper” Dulatov is a 27 year old German prospect with a 12-1 professional record. He lost his professional debut, then went on a big run, culminating in a contender series round 1 KO and a knockout of Adam Fugitt in his UFC debut, also in the first round. He may not have had the biggest prospect pedigree of anyone coming out of the Contender Series in 2024, but the win over Adam Fugitt showed a technical striker who just looked unstoppable. He has 7 wins by knockout and 5 by submission, only going to decision in his 1 career loss. He has just 1 2nd round knockout, with all other finishes coming in the first round.

Wellington “The Prodigy” Turman is a 30 year old Brazilian fighter with a 18-8 professional record. He’s 3-6 in the UFC, last fighting in 2023. His losses aren’t awful, but all 3 of his wins are over fighters who have been out of the UFC for quite some time. He has 4 career knockouts, 8 submissions and 6 decision wins, but has 1 submission as his only UFC finish. Turman is an unknown after a near 3 year layoff, but he wasn’t a particularly high level fighter before, which is why he’s the biggest underdog on the card.

There aren’t a lot of fighters I’d pick Wellington Turman to beat at this point, and Islam Dulatov is definitely not one of them. I think he gets it done quick, as he always does.

Prediction: Islam Dulatov def. Wellington Turman by KO in the first round

Co-Main Event

Flyweight: #10 Steve Erceg (-130) vs Ramazan Temirov (+110)

Steve “Astroboy” Erceg is a 30 year old Australian fighter with a 14-4 record. Erceg is 5-3 in the UFC, most well-known for his close loss to Champion Alejandro Pantoja. He was 3-0 in the UFC with some solid wins, and the UFC was looking for someone new to throw at the dominant champion. Erceg almost got it done, but fell short with 2 judges giving him 2 rounds, but still a Unanimous Decision in favor of the champion. Erceg would then lose to Kai Kara-France and Brandon Moreno as well. He’s since on a two fight win streak, beating Ode Osbourne and Tim Elliott, both by decision. He has just 2 career knockouts, with 6 submissions and 6 decision wins. Erceg feels more like a gatekeeper at this point but he’s on a win streak so we’ll see where he goes from here.

Ramazan “Temurlan” Temirov is a 29 year old fighter from Uzbekistan with a 19-2 record. Temirov went on a big run on the regional scene and debuted in the UFC by beating CJ Vergara. He then beat Charles Johnson by close decision to get himself into the rankings. He was later removed from the rankings and suspended due to a failed drug test, but is now making his return. He has 11 knockouts, all in the first round, with 1 submission and 7 decision victories. His losses have came via submission and decision once each. It’s hard to know how much of that power came from steroids, but Temirov has been a power puncher in the Flyweight decision, with some grappling ability as well.

If Temirov’s win over Johnson was more dominant, or if we didn’t have the steroid question looming over Temirov’s career, I would be picking him easily in this matchup. As it stands though, it’s very tight for me. Ultimately, I just don’t rate Steve Erceg all that highly, especially on the feet, so I’m taking the slight upset in Temirov.

Prediction: Ramazan Temirov def. #10 Steve Erceg by TKO in the second round

Main Event

Light Heavyweight: #1 Magomed Ankalaev (-460) vs #9 Bogdan Guskov (+345)

Originally supposed to be Ankalaev vs Rountree, Bogdan Guskov steps in and gets the biggest opportunity of his career. Ankalaev is a 34 year old, Russian, Dagestani fighter with a 21-2-1 professional record. He lost his UFC debut, a last second submission by Paul Craig. Since then he’s been on a run, with a 2022 draw against Jan Błachowicz being the only real blemish on his resume en route to the belt. Ank beat Alex Pereira to win the Light Heavyweight belt and become champion. Alex won the rematch, taking the belt back and handing Ankalaev just his second career loss. With Alex out of the division, I truly believe Ankalaev is the fighter to beat in the division. He has 11 knockouts and 10 decision wins, never achieving a submission victory. He is sometimes disliked due to his boring style, which combined with his Dagestan background makes the uninformed assume he’s a wrestler, which is not the case, although he does do work in the clinch. If anything he’s a points fighter in the mold of Michael Venom Page, with enough power to finish fights as well.

Across from him is rising prospect Bogdan Guskov. “Hitman” is a 33 year old fighter from Uzbekistan with a 18-3-1 professional record. Guskov entered the UFC 14-2, losing his debut to Volkan Oezdemir, a fighter Ankalaev has beaten comfortably. Oezdemir is quite a difficult debut though. Guskov won 4 straight following that loss, earning 2 performance bonuses and entering the rankings following is win over Nikita Krylov. In his most recent fight, Guskov drew with Jan Błachowicz and was scheduled to fight him again until the opportunity popped up. In that fight Blachowicz won 2 rounds, but 2 judges gave Guskov a 10-8 round to force the majority draw. Guskov has 15 career knockouts, 3 submissions, and has never won by decision. 11 of his 15 knockouts and 1 of his submissions came in the very first round.

Ankalaev is just the much more skilled and proven striker in this matchup. Guskov has good power, and Ankalaev was knocked out in his last fight, so the opportunity is there, but it’s hard to bet against Ankalaev in this one. I struggle to see him losing a round, besides him just getting 1 punch KO’d. I think Ankalaev wins the first 2 rounds and finds the finish in the 3rd.

Prediction: #1 Magomed Ankalaev def. #9 Bogdan Guskov by TKO in the third round.